Regardless of Mark Carney’s pledges all through the election marketing campaign to kick-start the nation’s financial system, construct vitality corridors and remodel the nation into an vitality superpower, many within the oilpatch are unconvinced there might be any change in coverage route from the re-elected federal Liberals.
Grant Fagerheim, CEO of oil firm Whitecap Sources, awoke early Tuesday morning solely to really feel pissed off and anxious by the outcomes of Monday’s election.
After a decade of the Liberals in energy, Fagerheim described a sense of disappointment amongst many in Calgary’s downtown workplace towers the place vitality corporations are headquartered.
“It’s extremely difficult for us in Western Canada and particularly whenever you work within the vitality sector, to deliver them again into energy once more,” he mentioned.
“Fairly frankly, it is astonishing.”
For years, oilpatch leaders have chastised the Liberal authorities for introducing insurance policies that hurt the sector such because the clear gasoline laws, the proposed emissions cap, and adjustments to the federal evaluation of main initiatives.
There’s a lot at stake proper now. We won’t afford to journey— Deborah Yedlin, Calgary Chamber of Commerce
After changing Justin Trudeau as prime minister final month, Carney made marketing campaign pledges that will be extra supportive of the oilpatch. Oil and pure fuel is the nation’s largest export to the US.
“There’s a basic sense of unease by way of how the Liberals will transfer ahead on an agenda that we all know is essential to Alberta,” mentioned Deborah Yedlin, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.
“There’s a lot at stake proper now. We won’t afford to journey. We should guarantee that we’re targeted on the long run,” she mentioned, particularly contemplating the continuing commerce battle with the U.S.
In a latest survey of vitality executives and buyers, ATB Capital Markets discovered that “federal vitality and environmental insurance policies” had been ranked because the top risk dealing with the Canadian vitality sector.
Seventy-three per cent of these surveyed mentioned a Liberal minority authorities can be destructive towards their willingness to put money into Canadian vitality, ATB analysts wrote in a report Tuesday morning.
‘Construct child, construct’
In his victory speech Monday night time, Carney vowed to make Canada a “superpower” of each clear and conventional energy, and promised to “construct, child, construct” — an obvious reference to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge on oil drilling.
“It is time to construct new commerce and vitality corridors working in partnership with the provinces, territories and Indigenous peoples,” he mentioned.
On the marketing campaign path, upon assembly with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Carney urged he is likely to be prepared to move away from the idea of an emissions cap on the oil and fuel business, which has been criticized by the oilpatch as a de facto cap on manufacturing.
Carney has additionally mentioned he’s dedicated to creating Canada’s oil business extra aggressive.
“The dedication is to ship initiatives like those who we agreed are nationwide priorities,” Carney said in March. “It is about getting, sure, pipelines constructed throughout this nation in order that we are able to displace imports of overseas oil.”
Western Canada produces tens of millions of barrels of oil on a regular basis, however components of Japanese Canada import oil as a result of there aren’t any pipelines working throughout the nation.
The Liberal platform promised to get main initiatives authorized extra rapidly, as a substitute of the present course of which may take a number of years.
Pipeline politics
Adam Waterous, CEO of the Waterous Power Fund and government chairman of Strathcona Sources, says Carney has been responding to a shift in public sentiment in favour of the Canadian vitality sector.
A latest Nanos poll, for instance, discovered that roughly three out of 4 Canadians now assist the development of a brand new east-west pipeline.
The issue, says Waterous, is that the non-public sector has been unable to construct new vitality infrastructure lately as a result of buyers aren’t coughing up cash for these initiatives.
He was a part of a gaggle of CEOs who despatched a letter to the federal candidates throughout the marketing campaign, asking for adjustments such because the elimination of the federal emissions cap and the repeal of the federal carbon levy on large emitters.
“Eliminate all that, you are going to have private-sector funding,” mentioned Waterous.
Up to now, Carney hasn’t dedicated to these particular calls for. Waterous says that leaves the federal authorities with one choice to get new pipelines constructed: to make use of a Crown company.
That is not unprecedented. The Trans Mountain growth pipeline is owned by the federal authorities, and the CEO of the Crown company recently floated the idea that Ottawa may retain possession for the long run.
“This isn’t an enormous deviation from the philosophy of the federal government now,” mentioned Waterous. “It does not perhaps shock me that he did not marketing campaign on creating Petro-Canada 2.0 however yeah, it is the one logical conclusion.”
Carney isn’t any stranger to Alberta as he grew up in Edmonton. Moreover his previous roles as governor of the Financial institution of Canada and the Financial institution of England, Carney held the position of UN particular envoy for local weather motion and finance, and in addition advocated for the worldwide monetary sector to put money into net-zero emissions.
In a observe Tuesday morning, Royal Financial institution analyst Maurice Choy mentioned buyers might be eager to see how Carney’s platform interprets into vitality coverage, significantly round growing intra-Canada and worldwide vitality commerce and persevering with the nation’s decarbonization journey.
“Firms which have clear vitality progress initiatives might profit from sure Liberal initiatives, together with the federal funding tax credit, the carbon contracts for variations, federal output-based pricing system for big emitters, and the potential east-west electrical energy grid,” wrote Choy.
“For [the midstream sector], we look ahead to the extra supportive allowing panorama for main vitality infrastructure initiatives that the celebration campaigned on, and the way the celebration might construct Canada right into a ‘superpower in each clear and traditional vitality.'”
Sliding costs
Lately, the oilpatch has loved historic income as commodity costs soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the similar time, Canadian oil manufacturing has continued to develop to set new data.
Up to now, in 2025, oil costs have softened significantly and dropped on Monday to about $60 US per barrel in North America. At these costs, corporations may start slashing funding and reducing jobs.
Nonetheless, for Fagerheim, the CEO of Whitecap, he’s adamant the larger concern proper now could be the election consequence and whether or not Carney will really pivot the Liberal celebration’s insurance policies towards the sector.
“We have got the identical band with a distinct singer,” he mentioned.
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