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In October, Dmitry Bivol turned the primary boxer to keep away from a knockout by Artur Beterbiev. On Saturday, he will try again to be the first boxer to beat Beterbiev.
Some felt Bivol did enough to achieve that feat the first time, just for the now-former champion to endure a primary skilled loss in the closest of fights. In any case, Bivol insists: “I must add more.” The 34-year-old has stated so repeatedly forward of this rematch, through which the undisputed light-heavyweight titles are on the line again.
However towards one of the most unforgiving punchers in boxing, “including extra” means taking potentially disastrous risks. It means Bivol crossing a harmful divide in Riyadh, the place Beterbiev barely stayed unbeaten in October. One scorecard read 114-114; the others read 115-113 and 116-112 within the 40-year-old’s favour. The Independent scored the fight a draw.
Whereas Bivol’s declare that he should “add extra” is admirable, one might argue he took sufficient dangers and confirmed adequate defence to have received the primary battle. However no matter what the boxers assume, or followers and pundits, what do the numbers say?
CompuBox showed Bivol outlanding Beterbiev in five of the 12 rounds, with Beterbiev landing more punches in six rounds, and one round drawn. While that specific statistic favours Beterbiev by the narrowest margin, the gap is even closer than you’d first think: in three of the five rounds where Beterbiev outlanded Bivol, he did so by just one punch; similarly, Bivol outlanded Beterbiev by a single punch in one of his “superior” rounds.
There was, however, a greater divide when it came to punch accuracy. By that metric, Bivol was sharper than Beterbiev in 11 of the 12 rounds – and comfortably so in most of them. These stats back up the notion that the judges preferred Beterbiev’s forward pressure, even when he wasn’t landing effectively, to Bivol’s sharpshooting.
But Beterbiev, with 20 KOs from his 21 unanswered wins, surely landed more power punches? Or landed power punches with greater efficiency, at least? The answer to the first question is “yes”, the answer to the second is “no”. Beterbiev landed 90 power punches to Bivol’s 84, so not a drastic lead, and he threw them with 29.4 per cent accuracy, compared to Bivol’s 50 per cent.
Of course, these numbers don’t tell the full story of the fight, as intriguing as they are. Perhaps a key stat, as CompuBox notes, is that Bivol outlanded Beterbiev 33-23 in power punches over the first six rounds, before Beterbiev turned the tables 67-51 in the final six. And in the final two rounds specifically, Beterbiev landed 29 power punches to Bivol’s 19.
That supports the “eye-test” consensus that Bivol surrendered the final two rounds. You might not have felt those rounds were enough to cost Bivol victory – even Beterbiev and his team looked downbeat after the final bell – but the judges did.
All three of them gave the ultimate two rounds to Beterbiev, and if Bivol had received simply a type of rounds, the battle would have been a split-decision draw; Bivol would have received it on one scorecard (which learn 114-114 on the night time), drawn it on one other (the 115-113), and misplaced by a slimmer margin on the third (the 116-112). If Bivol had received each of those rounds, he’d have received the bout by the identical rating that Beterbiev did in actuality: 116-112, 115-113, 114-114.
So, Bivol accepts he should take extra dangers within the rematch, to make sure he leaves little doubt – no matter which judges officiate the battle. Leaving any doubt can be the best threat of all, he would possibly argue.
As talked about earlier, although, Bivol was courageous within the first contest, and he solely appeared to face real hazard a couple of occasions. He was by no means actually rocked (at worst he might need been briefly shocked), though he was pressured to retreat and canopy up greater than he would have wished.
That is all price contemplating forward of this rematch, as is one remaining stat: Beterbiev’s age has ticked to 40 because the first battle. Admittedly, age has not visibly held him again in current fights, nor did a knee surgical procedure final spring. Certain, Beterbiev began slowly towards Bivol, however his second-half surge was sufficient to persuade the judges. But if he has pale even barely, victory could also be misplaced – so slim have been the margins final time.
Both manner, the numbers behind Beterbiev vs Bivol 1 are dizzying. Let’s see what maths are required after the rematch, or if both man can produce a punch price greater than any statistic.
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