Canadians love American booze, spending a whole lot of thousands and thousands on their favorite drinks yearly. However a tariff warfare between each international locations might put Canadian tipplers in unhealthy spirits.
U.S. President Donald Trump might hit Canada with tariffs as early as subsequent week, elevating the dangers that Ottawa would impose retaliatory tariffs on the USA amid growing fears of a trade war.
“If the president does select to proceed with tariffs on Canada, Canada will reply and all the pieces is on the desk,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated throughout a information convention Tuesday in Montebello, Que.
Trudeau signalled that Canada’s counter-tariffs might cowl the worth of Trump’s proposed 25-per cent tariffs on all Canadian items.
“I help the precept of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs. It’s one thing that we’re completely going to be taking a look at if that’s how they transfer ahead,” he informed reporters.
A kind of potential targets, primarily based on earlier retaliatory tariffs? American booze.
In 2023, U.S. alcohol exports to Canada amounted to US$262 million (C$377 million) a yr, with American whiskey accounting for US$76 million (C$110 million) of that.
Jack Cunningham, assistant professor at Trinity Faculty on the College of Toronto, informed World Information that Kentucky bourbon and Tennessee whiskey can be “completely advantageous targets” for retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa.
“Look, I like Kentucky bourbon as a lot as anyone else, however going with out it’s a pretty modest inconvenience within the grand scheme of issues, notably while you have a look at it within the context of the intense injury {that a} tariff warfare would inflict on each economies,” Cunningham stated.
Nicholas Ti, an economist at Toronto Metropolitan College, stated tariffs are certain to show Canadian customers away from U.S. booze.
The proof, he stated, was in Trump’s earlier tariff battle with the European Union.
“Solely six years in the past, Trump began a commerce warfare with the EU, and one of many insurance policies that they adopted within the EU was like a 50 per cent tariff on a bunch of American merchandise, notably whiskey,” he stated.
“The worth of American whiskey exports to the EU fell by over 20 per cent.”
Sylvanus Afesorgbor, a professor on the College of Guelph’s Division of Meals, Agriculture and Useful resource Economics, stated shifts in shopper behaviour would rely on an idea referred to as the elasticity of demand – the change within the demand for a product if its value shifts.
“Whether or not the value goes up or not, some folks should still wish to eat the identical product as a result of they’ve developed a style for it. They could nonetheless wish to purchase even with the next value,” he stated.
He stated the tariff risk is a reminder for Canada to look to different commerce companions.
“We now have to consider diversifying, as a result of it seems to be like we’re very a lot depending on the U.S.”
Ti stated elasticity will differ primarily based on what sort of drink is seeing a value enhance.
“The elasticity of this demand is decrease for beer. So general, when you enhance beer taxes, it has a smaller impact on beer consumption than when you enhance, for instance, spirits taxes.”
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He stated heavy drinkers are more likely to scale back the quantity of alcohol they drink, whereas occasional drinkers could tolerate larger price choices.
He stated an even bigger consider figuring out shopper behaviour is allocating shelf house — one thing that’s already a outstanding risk in Ontario.
“I’ve despatched a path to the LCBO that if these tariffs come to clear off each little bit of U.S. alcohol off the cabinets. Let’s begin selling extra Ontario-made wines, and the vodkas, the spirits. That’s what we have to do,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated Monday.
Ford has inspired different provinces to think about the identical.
Ti stated the Ontario authorities’s monopoly on alcohol gross sales in Ontario “offers them huge potential to dictate shopper behaviour by means of issues like promotions, shelf placement, and naturally, the choice of which manufacturers to inventory or not.”
What are the options?
Davin de Kergommeaux is the creator of Canadian Whisky: The Important Transportable Skilled, a information on Canadian whisky. He stated Canadian whisky lovers needn’t fear a few lack of choices if U.S. whisky is off the cabinets or costlier.
“I don’t suppose we ought to be wringing our arms as a result of we have now whisky up right here that’s each bit as pleasurable in all classes – entry stage, medium (high quality) whisky and a few actually prime notch premium whiskies as properly,” he stated.
“I feel it’s only a matter of going to the liquor retailer and asking the clerk for enable you to when you can’t discover it your self.”
Kergommeaux stated whereas many Canadians have a style for American whisky, Canadian whisky has traditionally been standard south of the border. Throughout two main occasions in U.S. historical past — the American Civil Battle and the Prohibition period — when American liquor shares grew dry, Individuals appeared north for good whisky.
“It has by no means misplaced that recognition. It’s nonetheless extra standard than American whisky within the U.S.,” he stated.
Joshua Richolt is the beverage director on the NH Assortment New York Madison Avenue Resort and was raised in Alberta.
“Canadian whisky is already principally the identical spirit as American whisky, as each are corn-based. Bourbon is extra typically distilled at a decrease proof, nonetheless, and much more of the congeners, oils, and different flavouring brokers are extra closely current in consequence,” he stated.
Nevertheless, specialists say there are options for bourbon too.
Stephanie Lusk, a chef and social media influencer, stated, “An alternate kind of whiskey that we have now right here in Canada is known as rye whisky and is made with Canadian wheat. That is actually nice as a result of there are such a lot of completely different choices and flavors and it’s additionally nearer to residence.”
Kergommeaux stated the disaster might convey alternative for Canadian distillers, whereas giving customers an opportunity to “rediscover” Canadian whisky.
What about wine and beer?
In 2024, Canada imported wine value C$51.4 million from the U.S.
Most American wine comes from California, however Lusk says there are home wine rising areas that Canadians might look to in the event that they wish to discover extra home choices – notably Niagara Falls, Ont., and British Columbia.
Richolt stated Canadian craft beer is already changing American beer in lots of markets.
“I dwell in NYC and journey residence quite a few occasions annually to Alberta. Beer is an area custom and finest served contemporary. There’s nothing higher than discovering smaller craft breweries and their particular person specialties,” he stated.
“The preferred cocktail whisky cocktail is the whisky bitter. You can also make that with any Canadian whisky,” Kergommeaux stated.
Lusk recommends utilizing rye whisky and giving it extra of a Canadian aptitude.
“One of many good issues about Canadian whiskies is that they really complement maple syrup very well,” she stated.
Whisky sours are usually made with whisky, lime juice, egg whites and easy syrup.
“You may substitute the easy syrup with some maple syrup and bourbon with Canadian whisky. And now you may have a Canadian rye bitter,” she stated.
Richolt stated most conventional recipes weren’t initially primarily based on bourbon.
“Rye, which was extra widespread, can typically be substituted and is usually carried out so in the most effective cocktail bars on the planet. Most of the finest rye producers on the planet are in Canada, simply ask Whistlepig, Excessive West and lots of different American manufacturers that use Canadian rye,” he stated.
Lusk famous there are additionally nonalcoholic choices.
“There are nonalcoholic whiskies, wines, beers. Simply having one thing in your hand at a celebration or at an occasion, typically makes you’re feeling such as you’re a part of it and also you overlook that you just’re not even ingesting the alcohol in any respect,” she stated.
Lusk additionally recommends trying up recipes for mocktails.
“They’ve nonetheless acquired just a little little bit of sugar, although,” she stated.
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