Israel’s longest war has to date didn’t destroy its primary enemy, Hamas, which, regardless of struggling devastating losses, is framing the Gaza ceasefire settlement as a victory for itself – and a failure for Israel.
Quickly after a ceasefire got here into impact on Sunday, masked gunmen emerged in autos roaming the devastated streets of Gaza in celebration. Members of an elite unit wore their full uniform at Al Saraya Sq. in Gaza Metropolis in the course of the hostage switch. It was Hamas’ reminder that its armed wing was nonetheless right here 15 months after Israel got down to destroy them.
One among Hamas’ primary objectives for taking some 250 hostages throughout its brazen October 7, 2023, assault on Israel was to safe the discharge of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. As Israel pounded Gaza in response Hamas vowed to not return the hostages till Israel withdrew its forces from the enclave, completely ended the battle, and allowed for rebuilding.
After greater than a 12 months of combating, Hamas and Israel in latest days reached a phased settlement that can see the discharge of hostages in trade for Palestinian prisoners, along with a 42-day ceasefire and the entry of help. The deal additionally opens the door for additional negotiations that would result in a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a everlasting ceasefire.
“(The settlement) achieves all these situations… the resistance has achieved what the Palestinian individuals need,” Hamas senior political member Osama Hamdan advised Al Jazeera after a deal was reached.
Khalil Al Hayya, Hamas’ primary negotiator, mentioned in a speech on Wednesday that Israel had failed to realize its battle objectives and praised Hamas’ armed wing, Al Qassam Brigades, whose spokesman Abu Obaida recommended the battle in Gaza as an “inspiration” for generations to return. Israel’s primary objective of the battle was to eradicate Hamas.
Some Israeli ministers, lawmakers and even a small minority of hostage households view the acceptance of a deal as an Israeli defeat. Far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his get together resigned from the federal government and Knesset (parliament), calling the truce a “give up.” Fellow right-winger, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich known as it “catastrophic” and a bunch of military reservists labeled it “The Give up Deal.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, middle, convenes his safety cupboard to vote on the ceasefire deal on Jan. 17, 2025. – Koby Gideon/GPO/AP
“Once you see … the dancing in Gaza, the celebrations in villages in Judea and Samaria – you perceive which facet surrendered on this deal,” Ben Gvir mentioned in a press release on Thursday. Judea and Samaria is what Israel calls the West Financial institution.
However most in Israel are welcoming the settlement, together with nearly all of the hostage households, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and the political opposition. Netanyahu’s workplace mentioned after the safety cupboard accepted the deal that the prime minister nonetheless “helps the achievement of the targets of the battle.”
A neon signal referring to the Israeli hostages held in Gaza atop the Charles Bronfman Auditorium at HaBima Sq. in Tel Aviv on December 9, 2023. – Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Photos
A supply acquainted with the matter advised CNN that Netanyahu advised ministers that the US has supplied ensures “that if Hamas sabotages a sure stage of the deal, Israel can resume combating.”
‘Hamas survival is a defeat for Israel’
Israel’s response to Hamas for the October 7 assault was intense. It flattened Gaza below probably the most extreme bombardment marketing campaign within the enclave’s historical past, killing tens of hundreds of Palestinians and displacing tons of of hundreds extra, lots of whom had been compelled to stay in tents with little meals and insufficient medical care.
Israel additionally inflicted heavy losses on Hamas, killing its high management, together with the mastermind of the October 7 assault Yahya Sinwar, and claimed to have killed hundreds of the group’s fighters. It was relentless in rooting out reemerging militants in beforehand cleared neighborhoods, all whereas combating, and ultimately defeating, Lebanon’s Hezbollah within the north, which had opened a brand new entrance towards Israel in help of Gaza.
The Hamas that was as soon as in army and political management of Gaza has been diminished to a fraction of its outdated self after Israel’s 15-month marketing campaign, and with the numerous weakening of its regional allies Hezbollah and Iran, the group has turn into regionally remoted.
Displaced Palestinians return to the war-devastated Jabalia refugee camp within the northern Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025, shortly earlier than the ceasefire deal was carried out. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Photos
But the motion has continued to current itself to Palestinians as probably the most formidable armed resistance group towards Israel, replenishing its ranks by recruiting nearly as many new militants because it has misplaced.
“Every time Israel completes its army operations and pulls again, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge as a result of there’s nothing else to fill the void,” United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned in remarks on the Atlantic Council just lately.
“Certainly, we assess that Hamas has recruited nearly as many new militants because it has misplaced. That may be a recipe for a permanent insurgency and perpetual battle.”
Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst with the Worldwide Disaster Group (ICG), argues that the struggling inflicted on Gaza’s Palestinians by Israel’s battle creates fertile floor for recruitment.
“You’ll be able to see a recruitment surge exactly as a result of when there’s occupation and violence you could find relevance there,” she advised CNN. “How will you count on complete hosts of segments of Gaza’s inhabitants who’ve misplaced all the pieces to easily take it mendacity down? It’s a battle for survival. Teams like Hamas present (the Palestinians) with the technique of doing that.”
In his feedback to the Atlantic Council, Blinken mentioned the US has harassed to the Israeli authorities “that Hamas can’t be defeated by a army marketing campaign alone, that with no clear different, a post-conflict plan and a reputable political rise to the Palestinians, Hamas or one thing simply as abhorrent and harmful will develop again.”
Hamas pledges to rebuild
The governance of post-war Gaza stays unaddressed, presumably on account of skepticism over whether or not the ceasefire settlement will progress past the preliminary section. Israel’s final battle objective is the whole destruction of Hamas. However Hamas seems unconcerned, suggesting that its cadres will play a job in rebuilding the devastated enclave. “The entire inhabitants, and the resistance as a part of it, will start rebuilding what the occupation has destroyed,” Hamas’ Hamdan advised Al Jazeera.
Hamdan maintained that whatever the final result, the day after for Gaza will stay much like the day earlier than.
“The day after, is like at this time, is just like the day earlier than…it is going to be a Palestinian day,” Hamdan mentioned.
Members of the Worldwide Committee of the Purple Cross converse with fighters of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, in Saraya Sq. in western Gaza Metropolis on January 19, 2025. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Whereas Hamas could also be claiming victory, it has didn’t pressure Israel to elevate the crippling siege on Gaza and has presided over Israeli strikes that killed tens of hundreds of Palestinian civilians and made Gaza unlivable. The October 7 assault, and the battle it triggered, have had a ripple impact, considerably altering the regional steadiness of energy and essentially reshaping the area.
Hamas doesn’t see its survival as a objective on this battle, however for Israel, the group’s very survival will be thought-about a “defeat,” the ICG’s Mustafa mentioned.
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