With Canadians – and even Quebecers – rallying across the flag within the face of threats from the Trump administration, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois is struggling to search out its footing.
The Quebec opposition occasion has been main within the polls for greater than a yr, and chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to carry a 3rd referendum by 2030 if his occasion types authorities in subsequent yr’s election.
However U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation have shaken up the political panorama in Quebec. Assist for independence is abruptly decrease than it has been in years, elevating questions on whether or not the PQ must pivot away from sovereignty.
For now, the occasion insists it’s staying the course. “We imagine it’s one thing that evokes Quebecers to have people who find themselves trustworthy to their convictions and their values,” Pascal Paradis, a PQ member of the nationwide meeting, mentioned in a latest interview.
He mentioned it’s fascinating to see Canadian leaders defend the nation’s sovereignty “tooth and nail” in opposition to Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state. He in contrast the wave of nationalism to Quebec’s personal independence motion, questioning why it’s “good for Canada however not for Quebec.”
“We’ll keep true to our message,” he mentioned.
That would make the PQ weak. A latest Léger ballot discovered help for Quebec independence had dipped to 29 per cent. Government vice-president Sébastien Dallaire mentioned that’s across the lowest stage of help the polling agency has ever measured.
“It’s clearly associated to the present context of elevated patriotism in Canada, an elevated feeling that we have to stick collectively and stand as much as america,” he mentioned.
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Assist for the Parti Québécois has additionally taken a success since late final yr, Dallaire mentioned, although the occasion remains to be main within the polls. To this point, it’s the Quebec Liberals – relatively than the governing Coalition Avenir Québec – whose political fortunes have ticked up.
“The Liberal model normally, each on the federal and the provincial stage, has been bolstered by what’s taking place,” Dallaire mentioned, including that the Liberals are “extra related to the struggle for Canadian unity.”
However the dedication to sovereignty is central to the PQ’s identification below the management of St-Pierre Plamondon. Dimitri Soudas, a political analyst and former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper, mentioned the 48-year-old lawyer is the primary PQ chief in a very long time who hasn’t been “wishy-washy” on independence.
St-Pierre Plamondon took the reins of the PQ in 2020, when it was getting ready to collapse. The occasion had been lowered to 10 seats within the provincial legislature within the 2018 election, and would drop to a few in 2022. Paradis received a fourth seat in a 2023 byelection.
“On the time, the technique was easy,” Soudas mentioned. “It’s important to crystallize the bottom.”
Since then, St-Pierre Plamondon has stood agency on his pledge to carry a referendum in a primary mandate, although help for sovereignty has by no means climbed a lot above 35 per cent lately. However that dedication might now flip into an “Achilles heel” within the context of Trump’s threats, Soudas mentioned.
“If I used to be campaigning in opposition to them, I might marketing campaign on one concern: the instability that the referendum would deliver.”
Quebec Premier François Legault, whose recognition has waned after greater than six years in workplace, has been fast to grab the chance, arguing now isn’t the time to organize for a referendum.
However the PQ has not backed down. Final week, the occasion revealed a video on social media claiming the idea of Canadian unity is a fable and that Quebec could be higher positioned to defend its personal pursuits and shield its border if it separated from Canada. “An unbiased Quebec could be stronger,” the video says.
Paradis mentioned Canada has not offered a standard entrance to america, with provinces equivalent to Ontario and Alberta solely looking for themselves. “The outcomes present that there was no Canadian defend, that belonging to Canada didn’t shield us in opposition to the tariff menace,” he mentioned.
Antonine Yaccarini, a political analyst and former staffer for the PQ and the Coalition Avenir Québec, mentioned St-Pierre Plamondon’s occasion should discover a technique to be taken extra significantly on financial issues, relatively than simply on questions of identification.
However she additionally believes the PQ ought to maintain regular on sovereignty. She mentioned there’s likelihood help for independence will rebound if Quebecers don’t really feel Ottawa has their pursuits at coronary heart.
“I actually suppose these points will resurface in a short time,” she mentioned. “And that Quebecers will search for somebody to defend them.”
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