As just lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the concept of a short lived cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month during which President Trump turned American overseas coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager not less than to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and america on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, advised reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously learning” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between america and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He mentioned he anticipated america to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that happened and the understandings that had been reached.” He raised the opportunity of one other telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes during the last month as Mr. Trump realigned American overseas coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from america and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his needs for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the struggle as quickly as attainable, Mr. Putin has signaled he is not going to cease combating till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine is not going to be part of NATO and that the alliance will cut back its presence in Central and Japanese Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the purpose of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some sort of respite.” Russia, he mentioned, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the respectable pursuits of all individuals, all nations who reside on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a short lived cease-fire stemmed from the straightforward calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely quit its leverage by stopping the combating with out successful concessions.
However a Feb. 12 telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, might have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good aspect, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, mentioned the Kremlin could possibly be tempted to just accept a truce that will be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” with a purpose to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has stored up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russian information businesses reported on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, in accordance with two individuals aware of the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inside plans. On Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Trump advised reporters that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week and that he hoped a long-lasting cease-fire can be negotiated within the coming days.
“It actually will not be unattainable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, mentioned of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, momentary cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
In one other signal of Moscow’s appeal offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s overseas ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information character Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and mentioned Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that america was providing.
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had mentioned he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it might refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area largely again in Russian fingers, Mr. Putin now not dangers shedding face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would go away Ukraine in command of a swath of Russian territory, mentioned Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
Nataliya Vasilyeva and Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
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