As Alberta flirts with the potential of a referendum on separation, Quebec sovereigntists are watching with curiosity — and a wholesome dose of skepticism.
Some are hoping a wave of separatist sentiment in Alberta will put wind within the sails of Quebec’s personal independence motion, which took a blow within the latest federal election when the Liberals made massive good points within the province on the expense of the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois.
However others see Alberta’s model of separatism, grown out of frustration with federal Liberal insurance policies, as so basically totally different from Quebec sovereignty that it’s exhausting to not be dismissive.
“In Quebec, we have now a nation, a language, a tradition, a definite historical past,” stated Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société St-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, a outstanding Quebec nationalist group.
“They need an oil-based future. Now we have no frequent objectives. We’re not alike.”
Final week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled laws that might decrease the bar for a citizen petition to set off a referendum. Although she insists she doesn’t assist Alberta separating from Canada, she stated this week she’s going to maintain a referendum on separation subsequent yr if a petition meets the brink, and that she’s going to respect the end result.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, chief of the sovereigntist Parti Québécois, has applauded Smith for defending Alberta’s pursuits. Earlier this week, he drew a parallel between the 2 provinces, saying they each need self-determination within the face of “abuses of energy” by the federal authorities.
He’s not alone in sensing a chance. Frédéric Lapointe, president of the Mouvement nationwide des Québécoises et Québécois, stated the talk in Alberta might assist “normalize” the thought of separation.
“The truth that there are discussions outdoors of Quebec, elsewhere in Canada, it might be a type of wake-up name,” he stated. “After which individuals will begin to consider it extra critically.”
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He additionally identified that Quebec’s sovereigntist motion has historically been a left-wing challenge. He hopes a push for independence led by conservatives in Alberta would possibly broaden its attraction in Quebec.
The PQ has launched two referendums on Quebec sovereignty — in 1980 and 1995 — and misplaced each. St-Pierre Plamondon, whose get together is main within the polls, guarantees to carry a 3rd by 2030 if the PQ varieties authorities in subsequent yr’s provincial election.
In recent times, assist for sovereignty in Quebec has hovered round 35 per cent, although U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation pushed the difficulty to the again burner in final month’s federal election. A ballot this week from the Angus Reid Institute pegged assist for separation in Alberta at 36 per cent.
Nonetheless, Alepin questioned whether or not Albertans who say they assist independence actually wish to go away Canada, or whether or not they merely plan to make use of the risk as leverage. Smith has stated she desires to compel the federal authorities to finish insurance policies which have lengthy irritated her province, together with by demanding assured oil and gasoline pipeline entry to tidewater.
“Alberta desires an even bigger place in Canada,” Alepin stated. “We wish to get out.”
First Nations in Alberta, in the meantime, have denounced the latest speak of a referendum, saying the province has no authority to supersede treaties signed with the federal authorities. Their opposition means Alberta ought to suppose twice earlier than happening this path, stated Ghislain Picard, former Quebec regional chief of the Meeting of First Nations. He identified that Quebec’s Cree and Inuit held referenda of their very own in 1995, and voted overwhelmingly towards separation.
Louise Harel, a former PQ interim chief, stated a secessionist motion in Alberta might heighten sovereigntist sentiment in Quebec, however not due to any frequent trigger between the 2 provinces. If Prime Minister Mark Carney provided Alberta an olive department by supporting a brand new oil pipeline by Quebec, she stated, “Quebec might set off a referendum and win it in protest.”
Harel stated she couldn’t assist an independence motion in Alberta as a result of she believes its main aim could be to guard the oil and gasoline sector and undo environmental protections.
The concept separatists in Alberta and Quebec are combating irreconcilably totally different battles was summed up most succinctly this week by Bloc Québécois Chief Yves-François Blanchet.
“The primary concept is to outline oneself as a nation,” he advised reporters when requested if he had suggestions for his western confrères. “Due to this fact it requires a tradition of their very own. And I’m not sure that oil and gasoline qualify to outline a tradition.”
It was a flippant comment, however Michael Wagner, an advocate for Alberta independence, stated it’s principally true. He agrees that Alberta isn’t a definite nation, in contrast to Quebec, and that its separatist motion is extra fragile consequently.
“Most Albertans, even those who assist separation, don’t actually need it,” he stated. He recalled talking at a separatist assembly three years in the past that opened with attendees singing the nationwide anthem. “I don’t suppose they might do this in Quebec,” he stated.
Wagner stated Carney has “an actual alternative” to make good with Alberta by repealing among the Liberal authorities’s local weather insurance policies. He stated that might be his first alternative, although it could undermine the independence motion.
Regardless of their variations, Wagner stated Alberta separatists ought to take inspiration from Quebec in not less than one respect. “The one factor that the Quebec separatist motion had that Alberta nonetheless has by no means had is a powerful chief like (PQ founder and former premier) René Lévesque,” he stated. “If solely somebody like that might come ahead, it could make an enormous distinction for us right here.”
Although there are few indicators of an alliance forming between separatists in Alberta and Quebec, there have been occasional exchanges. In 2020, former Bloc MP and PQ member of the legislature Daniel Turp attended a Calgary convention on Albertan autonomy to provide a presentation on Quebec’s 1995 secession plan.
5 years later, Turp, an emeritus professor in Université de Montréal’s legislation school, is amongst those that suppose a referendum in Alberta might have a “reasonably optimistic affect” in Quebec.
“I believe it’s in all probability going to be beneficial once we notice that one other province desires to decide on the trail of independence,” he stated. “I believe it may lead individuals who have all the time hesitated to wish to vote sure.”
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