KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan – Some in Taiwan are watching with rising unease as the Catholic Church prepares to elect a brand new chief following the dying of Pope Francis. The Holy See is the one European state that maintains diplomatic relations with Taipei, however some worry the rising ties between the Vatican and Beijing may change issues.
Taiwan is house to fewer than 300,000 Catholics. Against this, estimates put the variety of Catholics in communist China at wherever between eight and 12 million, with one other 390,000 in Chinese language-ruled Hong Kong. Regardless of these figures, the Holy See continues to acknowledge Taiwan as the only “China.”
After Pope Francis’ dying, Taiwan’s President William Lai shortly stated he deliberate to attend the funeral. A short while later, nonetheless, Taiwan’s Ministry of International Affairs introduced that former Vice President and religious Catholic Chen Chien-jen will likely be Taiwan’s envoy.
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This image taken on August 10, 2018, reveals worshippers lining as much as obtain holy communion throughout a Catholic mass within the Holy Spirit Church in Yanshui, about an hour’s drive from the southern metropolis of Tainan. With a cross rising from a purple pagoda roof and two lion statues guarding the doorway, a Catholic church in southern Taiwan may simply be mistaken for one of many ubiquitous temples dotting the island. There are greater than 1,000 church buildings throughout the island, however the Holy Spirit Church is especially distinctive. (SAM YEH/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)
In accordance with Taipei-based lawyer and political danger analyst Ross Feingold, Taiwan will likely be dissatisfied that President Lai will miss this gathering of world leaders. “The precedent exists for Taiwan’s president to attend a pope’s funeral. In 2005, then-President Chen Shui-bian attended John Paul II’s funeral, so,” he claimed, “it’s protected to imagine President Lai’s staff inquired whether or not Lai may attend Francis’ funeral, and equally protected to imagine the Holy See’s response was a damaging one.”
After Pope Francis took workplace in 2013, the Vatican started to construct ties with Beijing. In 2018, it signed a controversial settlement with China on the appointment of bishops. The deal—renewed and prolonged a number of occasions—provides each side enter on bishop choice, an try to bridge the divide between China’s state-run Catholic Church and an underground church loyal to Rome. Vatican officers insist the settlement is pastoral, not political. Nonetheless, for Taiwan, it’s seen as a warning signal.

This image taken on August 10, 2018, reveals a motorcyclist driving previous the Holy Spirit Church in Yanshui, about an hour’s drive from the southern metropolis of Tainan. (SAM YEH/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)
China, which minimize ties with the Holy See in 1951, calls for that every one nations finish diplomatic relations with Taiwan earlier than establishing relations with Beijing. Taiwan’s official allies now quantity however 12, and the Holy See is its most symbolically important diplomatic accomplice.
However Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy knowledgeable at Taiwan’s Nationwide Chengchi College, instructed Fox Information Digital that fears of an imminent change are overblown. “This isn’t nearly politics—it’s concerning the international Catholic mission,” Tu stated. “The Vatican has survived empires. It’s affected person.” Tu cited the Vatican’s relationship with Vietnam as proof of pragmatic persistence. China and Vietnam do not need formal ties, however the Vatican maintains a high-level spiritual consultant there.
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Folks attend a Christmas mass on the Xishiku Catholic Church in Beijing on December 24, 2023. (Pedro Pardo/AFP by way of Getty Picture)
Pope Francis believed that engagement with China, nonetheless imperfect, is preferable to nothing. Francis was the primary pope to fly by Chinese language airspace and famously despatched greetings to President Xi Jinping in 2014. On his go to to Mongolia in 2023, the pontiff additionally despatched a “heat greeting to the noble Chinese language individuals.”
Every overture to Beijing has drawn criticism from inside the Church, significantly from outspoken China critics, comparable to 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, who was arrested in 2022 after China imposed a Nationwide Safety Regulation that criminalized virtually each type of dissent in that supposedly autonomous particular administrative area. Zen’s passport was just lately returned to him by authorities so he may attend the pope’s funeral.
Zen and others view any warming of ties with Beijing as kowtowing to an formally atheist regime.

Pope Francis greets the individuals of China as he concludes Mass within the Hun Theatre on September 3, 2023, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. (Vatican Media by way of Vatican Pool/Getty Pictures)
Since 1957, Beijing, by way of its Chinese language Patriotic Catholic Affiliation, has saved a good leash on tens of millions of Chinese language Catholics. Pope Francis accepted some compromises with China, however the Vatican needs autonomy in religious issues, which can require a miracle to perform below China’s one-party dictatorship.
Some observers counsel that Beijing might ultimately permit more room for the Vatican, however any formal deal would require the Holy See to sever ties with Taiwan, a non-negotiable prerequisite for China.
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With a brand new pope being elected within the subsequent month, some in Taiwan are apprehensive a few shift, however few specialists consider the following pontiff will make any hasty selections. “There’s no rush,” stated Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Analysis Fellow of the ROC Society for Strategic Research, “The Vatican is aware of the way to wait, and China isn’t prepared but to grant the Chinese language Catholic group the identical privileges Catholics take pleasure in in most different nations. This seventy-plus-year rift is only a tiny second within the lengthy historical past of the Church and the even longer historical past of Chinese language civilization.”
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