The 1,547-page interim spending invoice to keep away from a authorities shutdown is successfully useless. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has all however yanked the plan off the ground after President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect Vance and Elon Musk torched the bundle to keep away from a authorities shutdown this weekend and fund the federal government by way of March 14.
Had House Republicans had the votes to cross the invoice – with out leaning too closely on Democrats – Republicans might have been in a position to cross the invoice late Wednesday afternoon earlier than the intervention of Mssrs. Trump and Vance. However there was simply an excessive amount of grassroots stress, sparked by Musk on X and elsewhere.
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The stopgap spending bundle proved unpopular on account of its measurement, and varied legislative ornaments festooned on the invoice like a Christmas tree. Conservatives have been anticipating Johnson to deal with the spending plan in a different way this yr on the holidays. But it surely backfired. Badly.
It’s notable that Mr. Trump didn’t weigh in till the eleventh hour. He additionally demanded a debt ceiling enhance. That’s one thing which confronted the President-elect within the first quarter of the yr and threatened to derail any legislative agenda or probably spook the markets.
Johnson’s determination to veer astray – regardless of touting the invoice heartily on Fox this morning – underscores a number of issues.
President-Elect Donald Trump reacts throughout his assembly with Prince William, Prince of Wales on the Embassy of the United Kingdoms Residence on December 7, 2024 in Paris, France. (Oleg Nikishin/Getty Pictures)
It is a signal of issues to return as soon as President-elect Trump is in workplace. And that would current issues for Johnson as he could also be on the whim of choices by the brand new President?
Why did Johnson pull the invoice?
It was wildy unpopular together with his rank and file. But it surely devolved additional as soon as Musk and the President-elect bought infused themselves.
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In lots of respects, Johnson’s determination to drag the invoice was all about January 3. That’s the day of the Speaker’s vote. With 434 members to begin the new Congress, Johnson wants 218 votes. In any other case, he lacks a majority and can’t turn into Speaker. The Home should vote repeatedly – because it did in January 2023 – earlier than electing former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) 5 days later in what was the longest Speaker’s race for the reason that 1850s.
Johnson tried to salvage himself within the Speaker’s vote by including emergency agriculture spending to the invoice. However Johnson is now attempting to salvage himself by arising with a brand new invoice.
Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson (R-LA) listens throughout a information convention following the Republican convention assembly on the U.S. Capitol on January 17, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Pictures)
The irony is that Johnson didn’t wish to create drama earlier than Christmas with a spending bundle. However drama is precisely what he bought in what rapidly turned the worst Congressional vacation standoff for the reason that fiscal cliff in 2012 or a authorities shutdown menace in 2014.
So right here’s the $64,000 Query: What play does Johnson name subsequent?
Does he do a clear CR to fund the federal government with nothing hooked up? Is it a invoice that simply re-ups present funding coupled with catastrophe help? Do they connect a debt ceiling suspension as President-elect Trump has requested?
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After which the largest query of all: can ANYTHING cross in any respect? Particularly with out votes from the Democrats?
Johnson has a tranche of conservatives who gained’t vote for any CR in any respect. Lots of them would additionally not vote for a debt ceiling enhance, both.
And even when there’s a new invoice, do conservatives insist on ready three days to ponder that invoice? That triggers a authorities shutdown proper there.
The US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg by way of Getty Pictures)
The deadline is 11:59:59 pm ET on Friday.
So that is going to require somebody to drag a rabbit out of a hat.
President-elect Trump’s maneuver as we speak is harking back to an analogous transfer he made in December 2019, which sparked the longest authorities shutdown in historical past.
Then-Senate Majority Chief Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), then-Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and others thought that they had a deal to fund the federal government and keep away from a Christmas-time shutdown.
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The Senate voted for the invoice. Senators even sat behind the chamber and sang Christmas carols in the course of the vote.
Mr. Trump then balked on the final minute. Home Republicans adopted go well with. The federal government shut down for greater than a month.
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