00:00 Speaker A
You noticed Jamie Diamond on Fox enterprise at this time. He is requested about that, he says US recession, he says a possible end result. Doubtless end result, he says, which clearly made quite a lot of headlines. Do you agree with Sir Jamie? Is it, is it a possible end result?
00:16 Jose
I believe proper now we’re on a coin flip, 50%. Let me let you know why. January and February, the spending numbers had been horrible. We, that is our financial engine is consumption. In uh, in January, the PCE, actual, actual PCE expenditures had been, went right down to a 47 month low. Retail gross sales in February, January additionally very weak. So, just about two out of three months within the first quarter have already been horrible. You solely have March. If the patrons did not come out heavy final month, then first quarter GDP is more likely to be destructive. Our prediction market interactive brokers additionally replicate that risk. Now, is the buyer going to get well strongly in April, within the second quarter and it is simply going to be a one quarter one off or is the buyer underneath some actual significant stress? In fact, if we begin to get some labor market deterioration into the center of the yr, then , we’ll most likely have a recession. I am anticipating it to be shallow at first.
02:02 Speaker A
You would not count on it to be deep and extended?
02:05 Jose
No, no, as a result of proper now all we’re targeted on when the Trump coverage combine, it is all of the headwinds. It is the laborious issues. It is commerce coverage. It is tariffs. It is authorities spending reductions. It is immigration restriction, which, by the best way, hasn’t been as unhealthy as feared. However as soon as we flip round, of us, and we begin specializing in the extra optimistic facets of the Trump coverage combine, specifically lighter taxation, milder rules, and decrease oil costs, and ideally an enormous surge in capital expenditures, then, , we may get well from that recession and be higher off. You already know, 20, 30, 40 years in the past, recessions weren’t a horrible factor. They had been type of like a reset, , just a little little bit of a breather to have a extra sustainable enlargement later.
03:19 Speaker A
Proper. On that optimistic notice, Jose, at all times nice to see you, my good friend.
03:23 Jose
Terrific. Thanks. You a lot. Thanks.
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