It is a transfer that might reshape North American commerce.
Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on all metal and aluminum merchandise coming into the U.S. from anyplace, together with Canada.
Meaning every time any Canadian metal or aluminum crosses the forty ninth parallel, the exporter should shell out 25 per cent to the U.S. authorities — on top of another 25 per cent if Trump makes good on his menace to tariff all items coming from Canada.
Listed below are 9 charts that put the metallic commerce between the U.S. and Canada in perspective.
Like plenty of Canadian merchandise, the overwhelming majority of metal and aluminum exports go to the U.S. Simply how heavy is that this reliance? In December 2024 alone, greater than a billion {dollars}’ value of metal was sure for the U.S. The majority of those exports got here from Ontario. Aluminum can also be a billion-dollar export, with most of it popping out of Quebec.
Trump’s acknowledged aim in imposing tariffs is to mood demand for overseas commodities and assist spur home manufacturing within the U.S. Because of this, U.S. demand for Canadian merchandise would drop and sure result in job losses right here at house, particularly in Quebec and Ontario.
“If we make it in the US, we do not want it to be made in Canada. We’ll have the roles, that is why Canada must be our 51st state,” Trump said.
Statistics Canada knowledge exhibits about 5,000 jobs within the metal sector are positioned in Hamilton, Ont., house to Stelco Inc. and ArcelorMittal Dofasco Inc. One other 2,400 staff are in Toronto.
These are large numbers, however these are additionally large city centres with diversified workforces. There are 2,400 metal staff positioned in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., a medium-sized metropolis with a complete inhabitants below 80,000, so vital job losses would be more acutely felt.
Whereas Ontario metal staff would really feel the brunt of any main layoffs, knowledge exhibits Canadians throughout the nation are employed by the metal trade.
As for aluminum, practically 3,000 individuals are employed within the aluminum trade in Saguenay, Que., alone, house to a Rio Tinto manufacturing facility. Different financial areas in Quebec would even be impacted, together with Trois-Rivières, Sept-Îles and Baie-Comeau.
Let’s take a look at the tariffs from the U.S. perspective. Canada is a vital buying and selling associate to the U.S. and the highest overseas provider of metal and aluminum within the U.S., forward of China and Mexico.
Canada’s metal and aluminum are the constructing blocks for an enormous swath of shopper items, together with vehicles, cans and home equipment.
To grasp the results on the U.S., we solely have to show the clock again to 2018, the yr Trump final imposed similar tariffs. After these measures have been launched, a report revealed by the U.S. Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis discovered the 2018 tariffs “neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly protected sectors,” however discovered “retaliatory tariffs had clear unfavorable employment impacts.” A U.S. Commerce Fee report discovered metal and aluminum costs elevated because of the tariffs. These tariffs have been scrapped in 2019.
The Canadian authorities has but to unveil the way it will reply, and if it can impose retaliatory tariffs.
“If it involves that, our response, in fact, shall be agency and clear. We are going to arise for Canadian staff. We are going to arise for Canadian industries,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week.
Proper now, Canada and the U.S. have a near-reciprocal metal commerce relationship. In 2024, practically $13 billion US value of metal and iron crossed into the U.S. from Canada and slightly greater than $11 billion US went within the different route, in response to figures from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Nevertheless, the gulf between imports and exports of aluminum is large. The U.S. brings in additional than thrice as a lot because it exports to Canada, highlighting how a lot the provision chain between the 2 international locations depends on aluminum from Canada.
The protectionist tariffs proposed by Trump may have seismic results on the metal and aluminum industries and its workforce in Canada. However let’s think about that the three classes impacted by the tariffs accounted for about 4.5 per cent of complete exports from Canada in December 2024.
The White Home mentioned the metal and aluminum tariffs will take impact March 12.
In the meantime, Canada is holding its breath, ready to see if Trump makes good on a separate menace to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian items.
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