Russia’s defence ministry might imagine its forces are “defeating” Ukraine’s counter-offensive within the Kursk area, however Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t.
He has despatched considered one of his hardest generals to organise the combat again towards Ukraine’s shock Sunday morning counter-offensive.
General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, promoted in December 2024 by Putin and trusted to run Russia’s border defences and Africa mercenary tasks, arrived in Kursk lower than a few hours after Ukrainian tanks began rumbling in the direction of Russian positions.
By sending Gen Yevkurov to Kursk, Putin has proven his hand.
Though it’s nonetheless unclear how profitable the Ukrainian counter-offensive shall be, he is clearly worried.
Repelling Ukraine’s August 2024 advance into Russia’s southern Kursk area has turn into a precedence venture for Putin earlier than Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on Jan 20 2025 and imposes a peace deal. Turning as much as negotiations with Ukraine nonetheless holding on to Russian territory, even small parcels, will weaken Putin.
Ukraine needs to hold on to territory within the Kursk area – by way of Reuters
Volodymyr Zelensky is aware of this. The Ukrainian president might have calculated that together with his forces being pushed again alongside the principle entrance line, applying pressure in Kursk is his best choice.
If his forces can push again Russian troopers in Kursk and maintain on to captured floor for one more two or three weeks, Mr Zelensky might really feel that he can strengthen his negotiating place.
However the stakes are nonetheless a lot greater for Mr Zelensky. Sunday’s Kursk counter-offensive could possibly be his last roll of the cube.
For the reason that begin of the warfare in February 2022, Mr Zelensky had staked his presidency on an unflinching dedication to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
His language has softened for the reason that summer season, when it turned clear that Ukraine was too weak to defeat Russia militarily and Mr Trump received the US presidential election, however his intuition remains to be to combat moderately than negotiate.
Mr Zelensky’s drawback is that this intuition now lies at odds with the exhausted Ukrainian population which now favours negotiating a peace cope with Russia.
He’ll hope that his assault in Kursk will as soon as once more persuade his Western allies that Ukraine nonetheless has the abdomen for a combat and is price backing.
As for Putin, Sunday’s motion might be extra of an irritation, maybe only a distraction, than a serious headache.
It’s a private affront for Ukraine to attack his forces inside Russia again, however he’ll cling to his core perception that with the load of numbers, Russian forces will defeat Ukrainian troops finally.
The issue for Putin is “finally”. His tactic of overwhelming Ukrainian positions with swarm infantry ways depends on time. With the clock ticking down in the direction of a second Trump presidency and potential peace negotiations, he might not have this luxurious within the Kursk area.
Mr Zelensky’s second Kursk counter-offensive is of venture, each strategically savvy and determined.
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