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Form of like that previous saying about actual property, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays season will probably be all about three issues: Vladdy, Vladdy, Vladdy.
Positive, the Jays wish to return to the playoffs after lacking out final season with a dismal 74-88 document that put them lifeless final within the American League East. And, who is aware of, perhaps their low season roster tweaks will repay, the celebrities will align, and so they’ll make that occur. That may be nice.
However, until and till the Jays signal franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a giant new contract to stop him from hitting free company this fall, the principle subject of dialog across the Jays will proceed to be whether or not Vladdy is staying or leaving.
With a lot of Toronto’s future hinging on the reply to that query, each win or loss this season will probably be considered by the prism of whether or not it helps persuade Guerrero (and, to a lesser extent, fellow homegrown star Bo Bichette) to re-up with the Jays or pushes him towards the door.
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This is the place issues stand because the Jays put together for his or her Opening Day matchup with visiting Baltimore on Thursday afternoon:
Guerrero seems set to check free company on the finish of the yr after cutting off negotiations with the Jays upon his arrival at spring coaching final month. The 26-year-old first baseman, who was the AL MVP runner-up in 2021, when he swatted a career-high 48 house runs, and completed sixth in MVP voting final yr after hitting .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs, mentioned on the time (by an interpreter) that he needed “to be a Blue Jay for the remainder of my profession.” However, he added, “it is enterprise, so I’ll need to take heed to 29 extra groups.”
When it comes to common annual worth, a 14-year, $500M deal would work out to $35.71M per yr. That is greater than $15M beneath Soto’s common wage, greater than $10M beneath Ohtani’s adjusted determine, and would rank 12th all-time.
Sounds pretty affordable (so far as $500M for enjoying a sport goes), and the Blue Jays reportedly met Guerrero’s uncooked asking value. Nonetheless, deferrals within the provide introduced it right down to about $450M in at the moment’s cash, in accordance with Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.
Sure, $50 million is some huge cash to you and me. However, as Davidi factors out, that works out to lower than $3.6M per season over 14 years. The Jays are paying greater than that to Myles Straw, a 30-year-old stopgap outfielder who hit one house run over the past three years. And what’s even $50M to a staff that may pay an estimated $240M-plus in participant salaries this yr alone and simply spent a whole lot of thousands and thousands extra to improve its stadium?
Look, no person desires to overpay for something. However Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and normal supervisor Ross Atkins are taking a giant danger by not locking Guerrero up earlier than his stroll yr. If he has one other large season, Guerrero’s asking value will in all probability go up — perhaps approach up. And even when he regresses again towards his not-so-great 2022 and ’23 ranges, you must assume different groups will nonetheless be prepared to take a shot on a prime-age star with a 48-homer season and an MVP runner-up underneath his belt.
If Guerrero does bolt, Toronto might be going through an extended rebuild on account of its incapability to land top-shelf free brokers. The Jays at the very least acted like large gamers out there over the past two winters, making aggressive provides to probably the most coveted stars. However they struck out on Ohtani and Soto, and in addition whiffed on Plan B choices like Corbin Burnes and Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki this low season.
As an alternative, the jilted Jays settled for flawed slugger Anthony Santander, fading star pitcher Max Scherzer and nearer Jeff Hoffman. Reliever Yimi Garcia is again after being traded to Seattle final July, however the Jays could not pull the identical trick with lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi, who signed with the Angels after Toronto dealt him to Houston as a part of their trade-deadline selloff final July.
Santander (signed to a five-year, $92.5M US deal) is a 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder who bashed a career-high 44 homers final season for Baltimore. That ranked third within the majors, trailing solely Aaron Decide (58) and Ohtani (54) — the AL and NL MVPs. However Santander’s on-base share was simply .308 (in comparison with .458 and .390 for Decide and Ohtani) and he is not sturdy defensively.
Scherzer (one yr, $15.5M) is a three-time Cy Younger winner and future Corridor of Famer. Drawback is, that future is close to. Mad Max turns 41 in July and missed most of final season with Texas on account of again, shoulder and hamstring accidents. In spring coaching, he was bothered by a thumb concern.
One other newcomer to look at is Alan Roden, a 2022 third-round draft decide who’s set for his major-league debut after making the team with a dynamite spring coaching. The 25-year-old outfielder hit a ridiculous (even for spring) .423/.556/.731 within the Grapefruit League and will see the sphere instantly as centre-fielder Daulton Varsho completes his rehab from shoulder surgical procedure. Here’s more on the Blue Jays’ outlook for this season.
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