Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday mentioned that the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was a “direct outcome” of Israel’s navy marketing campaign in opposition to Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
“It is a historic day within the historical past of the Center East,” he mentioned.
However in an indication of the potential hazard Israel feels from unknown rulers in Damascus, Netanyahu mentioned that he had ordered the navy to grab the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the remainder of Syria.
“Along with the Protection Minister, and with full backing from the Cupboard, I directed the IDF yesterday to take management of the buffer zone and the dominant positions close to it,” he mentioned whereas visiting the Golan Heights. “We is not going to permit any hostile pressure to determine itself on our border.”
It’s the first time Israeli troops could be stationed within the buffer zone since a 1974 settlement establishing the road of management between Israel and Syria, although they’ve prior to now entered the no-man’s land for temporary durations. Since 1974, the buffer zone has been patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.
Israeli leaders are watching occasions throughout the border in Syria with a mixture of trepidation and glee, as 50 years of detente had been upended in a matter of hours.
“We don’t know a lot,” mentioned Boaz Shapira, a researcher with the Alma Basis, a suppose tank devoted to points in northern Israel. “The state of affairs that we had been used to in Syria prior to now – 50 years with the Assad regime – has modified utterly.”
Bashar al-Assad was hardly an ally, however there was an understanding that allowed the nations to coexist. Although Israel often offered treatment to casualties of Syria’s civil struggle, it maintained official neutrality within the battle. The Israeli navy has additionally for years focused provide traces of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Syria – most notably killing Iranian military commanders within the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in April – however averted concentrating on the Assad regime itself.
The rebels’ speedy seize of Damascus implies that Israeli leaders must consider the implications for their very own safety.
Iran has now misplaced one in all its most essential bulwarks within the area. That can be trigger for celebration in Israel, which has been preventing Iranian-backed forces in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) since October final yr.
Netanyahu, who declared that the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was a step in direction of altering “the stability of energy within the area for years to return,” will see this as advancing that purpose.
Mordechai Kedar, who specialised in Syria affairs throughout a 25-year profession in Israeli navy intelligence, mentioned that the occasions in Syria had been a domino impact from Hamas’ October 7 assault on Israel. “It’s not solely Israel – it’s the entire Center East will have fun,” he informed CNN.
An individual holds up a Syrian opposition flag in a Druze village within the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, on December 8, 2024, as males have fun the autumn of Assad’s regime. – Stoyan Nenov/Reuters
The collapse of the Assad regime is a “extreme blow” for Iran, mentioned Amos Yadlin, a former main common within the Israel Protection Forces, who additionally served as chief of the Army Intelligence Directorate.
“The rebels tearing down posters of (Iranian commander Qasem) Soleimani and Nasrallah from the Iranian embassy in Damascus illustrate the severity of the blow to the axis,” he mentioned. “Rebuilding Hezbollah appears much more troublesome with the lack of Syria, which was a logistical rearguard for weapons from Assad, Iran, and Russia.”
Then again, nobody fairly is aware of – together with in Israel – who the rebels are who now management Syria, and the way they are going to implement their energy.
The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was previously an al Qaeda affiliate. The US Authorities nonetheless has a $10 million bounty on the top of its chief, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose actual title is Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Kedar mentioned that regardless of their radical roots, the opening indications had been constructive. “To date, they’re moderately rational,” he mentioned. “For instance, they’re leaving the federal government to run the nation.”
Jolani has known as on insurgent forces to depart state establishments unhurt. “To all navy forces within the metropolis of Damascus, it’s strictly forbidden to strategy public establishments, which can stay below the supervision of the previous Prime Minister till they’re formally handed over, and it’s also forbidden to fireplace bullets into the air,” he wrote on Telegram.
“Right here, they’re studying from the errors of the American in Iraq. They don’t need to destroy the nation. They need the system to work – in fact below totally different guidelines and totally different management. It is a very rational method to run the nation.”
Yadlin mentioned that Jolani had “demonstrated nice political sophistication and conquered Syria nearly and not using a combat.”
“Within the quick time period, the rebels aren’t a menace to Israel,” he mentioned. “When he’s required to determine his rule in Syria, he is not going to get entangled with probably the most highly effective navy pressure within the area. Israel must form the principles of the sport in opposition to Syria in the identical aggressive method by which it does so in Lebanon.”
That view will not be common. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chiklisaid said in a statement that “the underside line is that the majority of Syria is now below the management of associates of al-Qaeda and Daesh.” He known as for the Israeli navy to determine full management throughout the buffer zone that has since 1974 existed between Israeli- and Syrian-controlled territory.
Certainly, Israel’s high precedence can be securing its border with Syria. The IDF mentioned the deployment of troops throughout the Golan buffer zone was made “to make sure the protection of the communities of the Golan Heights and the residents of Israel.”
Shapira mentioned he doubted Israel would need to provoke the brand new leaders in Damascus by pushing into Syrian-controlled Golan. “Taking extra territory means now we have to take care of different gamers who won’t be so glad about it,” he added.
“There are dozens of various militias,” Shapira mentioned. “It’s going to be very difficult for Israel.”
The Israeli navy, in its assertion about operations within the Golan, mentioned: “The State of Israel doesn’t intervene in within the home battle inside Syria.”
Israel’s high safety and political leaders have been largely mum on occasions in Syria – little question, as they consider methods to react.
Opposition chief Yair Lapid mentioned that Assad’s ouster emphasised the necessity “to create a robust regional coalition with Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords nations (Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, Sudan) with a view to collectively deal with regional instability. The Iranian axis has weakened considerably, and Israel must try for a complete political achievement that will even help it in Gaza and the West Financial institution.”
CNN’s Abeer Salman and Mike Schwartz in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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