With simply days to go earlier than Donald Trump turns into U.S. president as soon as once more, Ottawa has been a listing of choices that would face retaliatory tariffs if he imposes 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian items.
Studies of the potential checklist began emerging in media reports citing sources in November. In current days, Canadian retailers together with World Information confirmed that there are a selection of things at present being thought of.
Amongst these are objects like orange juice from Florida and metal from Michigan and Pennsylvania, however these are a small variety of examples on the intensive checklist being thought of, World Information has discovered.
Consultants say a proportional response from Canada to no matter is imposed by Trump is wanting probably.
“For certain we’re going to have tariffs imposed on us by the Trump administration. The query now could be how lengthy will they final? Canada’s in all probability going to retaliate as a result of they should be seen to be doing one thing,” stated Moshe Lander, an economist at Concordia College.
The 2024 Fall Financial Assertion, tabled in December after Trump made his risk of tariffs, stated Canada’s worldwide commerce coverage will concentrate on reciprocity, which “can be thought of as a requirement for all federal spending and insurance policies.”
Jack Cunningham, assistant professor at Trinity Faculty on the College of Toronto, stated Canada has many playing cards it might play and retaliate with “relative ease,” however stated the important thing was to ensure Canada’s personal economic system wasn’t harm within the course of.
He stated whereas the logic of tariffs is to attenuate injury on one’s personal economic system, that’s difficult to do with the deep U.S.-Canada commerce ties.
“Neither of us can hurt the opposite with out harming ourselves as a result of the economies are so interdependent,” he stated.
Cunningham stated Ottawa might let political logic, as a substitute of financial logic, dictate what to place tariffs on.
“We might take a look at the place a tariff or an export tax would hit the U.S. economic system hardest and hit U.S. industries in states the place Trump is widespread,” he stated.
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Lander stated Ottawa might goal merchandise from Republican-leaning states.
“The place is Trump at his weakest? You’re going to wish to hit the merchandise within the areas which have the best help for Trump. You don’t wish to go after the coasts,” he stated.
What are potential targets?
Within the 2024 presidential election, Pennsylvania swung from Democrat to Republican.
Lander stated Ottawa’s technique might goal swing states.
“If you wish to try to inflict injury, then you definately go after possibly these seven states. Pennsylvania might be considered one of them, however you might additionally goal Michigan slightly bit more durable as a result of vehicles in Michigan are additionally going to have spillover results into the auto business in Canada,” he stated.
“North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada is also targets as nicely.”
This might imply U.S.-made automobiles might get costlier to purchase in Canada. However in some circumstances, Canada could even look to impose export tariffs.
“You possibly can try to goal Canadians that wish to take Vegas getaways and make it costly for them. However that’s punishing Canadian residents. It’s not essentially damaging the U.S,” he stated.
Cunningham stated it might additionally get costlier for Canadian snowbirds to spend the winter months within the U.S.
“We might even impose a vacationer tax on Canadian nationals who will vacation in Florida over the winter in Trump’s dwelling state,” he stated, including that oranges and orange juice from Trump’s dwelling state may additionally come below Ottawa’s counter-tariffs.
Canada fought again in opposition to U.S. metal and aluminum tariffs throughout Trump’s first time period by concentrating on particular American merchandise like enjoying playing cards, ketchup and bourbon to place political strain on Trump and key Republicans.
Cunningham stated a few of these merchandise might be within the crosshairs once more.
“We might impose retaliatory tariffs on American imports resembling Kentucky whiskey and California wine. We might impose export taxes on our exports to the U.S., making them costlier. We might prohibit power provides. There’s truly lots we might do,” he stated.
Cunningham stated these commerce restrictions ought to be adopted up with Canada reaching out to political gamers within the U.S. aside from Donald Trump.
“Go round him. Attain out to governors, senators, congressmen, enterprise leaders in states the place his political help is vital to him,” he stated.
“Foyer them, clarify to them how the financial interdependence between the 2 nations signifies that something he does to harm us, hurts them as nicely. That’s what we did final time within the renegotiation of NAFTA.”
Nevertheless, Lander isn’t certain that technique would work.
“The final time round, there was some technique concentrating on Utah and Kentucky as a result of (Republicans) Orrin Hatch and Mitch McConnell have been regarded as the 2 senators that would rein him in. This time round, I’m unsure that anyone is there to rein him,” he stated.
Lander stated counter-tariffs that elevate costs domestically might undercut Canada’s negotiating energy for when the CUSMA free commerce settlement is up for renegotiations.
Nevertheless, he stated if Canada does impose tariffs, it shouldn’t bounce the gun. The most effective time, he stated, is to attend till Trump has taken workplace on Jan. 20.
“If we wish to do retaliatory tariffs (we should always) wait till there are tariffs on us after which we come again and say, nicely, you compelled our hand. Not the opposite means round.”
Trudeau and the premiers will meet in Ottawa subsequent week to debate Canada’s response plan together with retaliatory tariffs.
— with information from World Information’ Mercedes Canadian Press
© 2025 World Information, a division of Corus Leisure Inc.
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