Because the U.S. lastly slaps long-threatened tariffs on Canada, a inhabitants unaccustomed to battle wonders: what does President Donald Trump have in opposition to us, anyway?
Theories abound, from the believable (It’s in regards to the lack of U.S. entry to the Canadian dairy market), to the non-public (Trump actually, actually doesn’t like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau), to the neo-colonial (the U.S. needs to annex us) to the perverse. (May it have been that 2019 photographic fake pas, when Trudeau regarded like he wished to smooch the First Girl, Melania?)
Trump has given his personal causes — lax border safety and fentanyl, however typically impeded entry to banking or an incorrectly quoted trade imbalance — however these causes have both been disproven or dismissed. He ceaselessly goads Canada and “Governor Trudeau” from his Reality Social account, claiming Canadians need to grow to be the 51st state and arguing that economically, it may be higher for us anyway.

There may be additionally one other principle provided by a long-time Trump confidant: the U.S. doesn’t have the time or want to provide you with coherent causes to resent us.
“There’s so much occurring right here, in addition to U.S.-Canada,” long-term Trump adviser and former commerce secretary Wilbur Ross tells World Information.
“Canada is only one of numerous massive points that the president and the administration are grappling with. I don’t imply to demean its significance, I perceive why [tariffs] are so necessary to Canada, however you actually need to place it into perspective from the U.S. perspective.”
Trump’s first commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, was one in all a handful of preliminary cupboard members in Trump’s first administration who stored their place for all the four-year time period. (AP Picture/Andrew Harnik, File).
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In a bid to grasp the erupting tensions between the 2 once-close buying and selling companions and neighbours, World Information examined previous administration memoirs, coverage papers, prior interviews and spoke to administration officers, present and prior, to grasp the place the fractious relationship began to crack.
However no consensus was given as to when the offending affront might have occurred.
Some theories seem to have credibility — there’s definitely nonetheless in poor health will harboured in the direction of Canadian dairy, and Trump actually doesn’t have something good to say about Trudeau. There’s additionally influential Trump adviser Peter Navarro, who actually appears to dislike his northern neighbours.
However the overarching principle emerged that this might not be about Canada in any respect; that worldwide tariffs and verbosely denigrating opponents, or allies, might merely be the best way of doing enterprise with the U.S.
And that Canada most likely isn’t as front-of-mind for Trump as we expect it’s.
In case you ask Trudeau, the rationale for Trump’s tariffs is as a result of the U.S. president needs “to see a complete collapse of the Canadian financial system, as a result of that can make it simpler to annex us.”
Not so, in line with Wilbur Ross. And, if something, Trudeau is antagonizing the scenario by saying so, he says.
“Accusations like that… may be helpful political rhetoric to Trudeau, however that’s definitely not very useful by way of making a [deal] with Trump. He’s by no means stated something like that being one in all his aims, so I don’t suppose there’s any foundation in any respect for it,” Ross tells World Information from his residence in Washington, D.C.

Ross was one in all a handful of preliminary cupboard members in Trump’s first administration who stored their place for all the four-year time period. He fell out of favour with the U.S. president within the first time period, however maintains an in depth private relationship with him and his circle. He says he had dinner with new commerce secretary Howard Lutnick final week.
He believes the Canadians have gotten the unsuitable thought with tariffs (a typical chorus from Trump advisers), and that it hasn’t affected the general relationship.
“We’ve had disputes with Canada earlier than, and it’s by no means destroyed the connection, so I don’t suppose that ought to be blown out of proportion. However commerce disputes should not like a very good wine. They don’t get higher with age.”
Maybe we might not be as necessary to Trump as we expect we’re, then. However what are the “Governor Trudeau” and “51st State” jibes for, if to not bully us into submission?

Steve Bannon, the main MAGA evangelist and former high Trump adviser, informed World Information final month that Trump needs management of Canada as a result of he needs management over the hemisphere and over the Arctic — what he calls “the new Great Game of the 21st Century.”
And, apparently, he’s doing it as a result of he respects Canada, not that he despises us.
“It’s one thing we’ve talked for years — at our first assembly. He holds Canada in very excessive esteem,” Bannon says.
So when Trump talks in regards to the thought of a 51st state, Bannon says, he’s speaking about “a partnership,” as a result of he’s “delicate to the Canadian identification.”

“He and I, we speak so much about army historical past and so much about World Battle Two. There’s by no means been a greater ally to america than Canada. You guys punch approach above your weight class. You had a superb army in World Battle Two. Folks neglect at D-Day, the Canadians had their very own seashore. I imply, take into consideration that.”
The issue is, Trump doesn’t significantly like our prime minister. Bannon calls Trudeau a “punk, and he’s a lot too near the CCP [Chinese Communist Party.]”
In case you ask Ross, the interpersonal relationships could possibly be enjoying a job. However not a serious one.

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“To the diploma that there’s any kind of emotional factor, it will be with Trudeau. However everybody is aware of Trudeau is changing into much less of an element within the total image anyway.”
Their fractious relationship dates again to the G7 Summit in Quebec in 2018, when Trudeau held a press convention, saying “Canadians won’t be pushed round” on U.S. tariffs on metal and aluminum.

Livid, Trump referred to as Trudeau “very dishonest & weak” on Twitter. The barbs have continued within the intervening years, main as much as the escalating rhetoric across the present commerce battle.
However Trump has additionally taken potential successors to job, too. He’s described Conservative Chief Pierre Poilievre as “not a MAGA guy,” has referred to as former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland “totally toxic” and said he doesn’t like her “very much.”
In addition to, Ross says, commerce points are literally on the coronary heart of this.
One of many extra stable theories is that Canada’s protected dairy trade has helped set off this fracas.
The U.S. president has lengthy been vocal about his opinion that the Canadian provide administration trade is unfair commerce protectionism that hurts American farmers. And that could possibly be irking him greater than public chastising from Trudeau.
“There’s much more to this than [Trump hating Canada],” Ross says.
“He has a really vivid recollection of the preventing over the dairy merchandise. That was a really massive concern throughout Trump 1.0. There’s a carry-over from that.”
Throughout his tenure as commerce secretary, Ross helped renegotiate the North American Free Commerce Settlement, which was changed with what’s now referred to as the Canada-United States-Mexico Settlement (CUSMA). Dairy was one of many hardest-fought points in negotiating CUSMA and was resolved within the remaining days of the negotiation course of.

Trump hailed it as “the biggest, most vital, trendy, and balanced commerce settlement in historical past,” however he has since stated renegotiating the deal is high of his agenda.
Every of the three key males Trump has appointed to cope with tariffs and commerce appear to have the identical beef.
At his Senate affirmation listening to, Ross’s successor, Howard Lutnick, talked about Canada’s perceived maltreatment of American dairy farmers on a number of events.
“I’m going to work onerous to verify, for example, in your dairy farmers. They do a lot, a lot better in Canada than they’ve ever performed earlier than, and that may be a key focus of this administration,” stated the brand new commerce secretary to applause.
This week, he claimed the Canadians “wish to cheat,” in reference to CUSMA.

After United States Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer’s Senate affirmation, a number of huge U.S. dairy corporations — together with the Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council — despatched their public congratulations, full with grievances with Canada and hopes of assist for U.S. dairy farmers and producers. Greer has stated a renegotiation of CUSMA will probably be one of many first issues he does.
Greer is a little-known determine exterior of Washington who served as chief of workers to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, the architect of a lot of Trump’s first-term tariff coverage.
He was intimately concerned within the renegotiations of CUSMA and in addition helped implement Trump’s 2018 and 2019 tariffs on Chinese language imports.
Julian Ovens, who was chief of workers to 2 of Canada’s worldwide commerce ministers within the Trudeau authorities, recollects Greer as “Lighthizer’s right-hand man” and “somebody that they’ll belief to execute the president’s insurance policies.
“He knew Canada properly. He was a part of the CUSMA renegotiation, so it will be equally troublesome for him to say that was a horrible deal.”
Trump White Home advisor Peter Navarro has lengthy held grievances in opposition to Canada. (AP Picture/Jose Luis Magana).
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Lastly, Peter Navarro, the long-time Trump commerce adviser and now the senior counsellor for commerce and manufacturing, has spoken at size about Canadian dairy.
In CNN correspondent Jim Sciutto’s 2020 e-book, The Madman Concept: Trump Takes on the World, Navarro accused Canada of being out of step with “Trump world,” sustaining unfair boundaries to overseas dairy imports, disparaging Canada’s position within the NATO mission in Afghanistan and facilitating the dumping of Chinese language merchandise into U.S. markets.
“Let’s take Canada. I imply, what’s good about Canada?” Navarro requested. “They’ve a number of the highest dairy boundaries to entry of any nation on the earth. What’s good about that?
Inside Trump’s interior circle, nobody appears to have it out for Canada fairly like Peter Navarro.
In 2018, following the fractious G7 summit in Quebec, Navarro publicly excoriated Trudeau, accusing him of “bad-faith diplomacy” and stated there can be a “particular place in hell” for the Canadian prime minister. Days later, he walked again the feedback, saying his language was “inappropriate.”
Extra lately, Navarro was supposedly primed to kick Canada out of the 5 Eyes intelligence-sharing group, as reported by the Financial Times. He later claimed the story was not true.
Navarro declined an interview with World Information.

However others who’ve labored with Navarro up to now have a lot to say about him.
Hunter Morgen, who labored carefully with Navarro in Trump’s first time period as a particular assistant to the president and senior adviser for coverage and technique, says “there’s a purpose Peter is one in all solely three authentic advisers that served from the genesis of the 2016 marketing campaign in Trump Tower by way of the whole thing of the primary time period.”
“The press likes to canine Peter (wrongfully), however nobody will outwork him (besides possibly president Trump). (He) has a ardour for deep financial points that might make even essentially the most erudite economist’s eyes glaze over.”
Morgen wouldn’t reply particular questions on what Navarro’s emotions in the direction of Canada had been, together with whether or not there have been long-held grievances at play.
Nonetheless, he stated the president and his financial group are “bored with seeing us ripped off.”
“In the case of commerce, the administration has stated there are not any allies within the conventional sense, it’s a zero-sum sport. Their curiosity is defending and selling home producers in addition to American employees.”

Navarro aired his ideas on open borders and the U.S.’s commerce companions in an article entitled “The Case for Truthful Commerce” within the conservative coverage playbook Venture 2025. In it, he waxed lyrical about commerce deficits between a number of international locations, however most of his consideration was spent discussing how the USTRA could possibly be levied on international locations equivalent to India, Taiwan and Vietnam – not Canada.
However Canada is definitely caught in his crosshairs now. On Wednesday, Navarro rerouted an interview on CNN about commerce and manufacturing to air extra of his grievances with Canada – this time, on fentanyl.
“I’d say to Mr. Trudeau that he has allowed Mexican drug cartels to embed themselves throughout Canada, carry up their little capsule presses, and manufacture these faux prescribed drugs, which then discover their approach. So, I feel, Mr. Trudeau, it will be actually helpful if he simply toned stuff down.”
As a result of it’s a drug battle, not a commerce battle, Trump asserts.
In case you ask Trump — or Lutnick, or Navarro, for that matter — Canada’s inaction on on fentanyl is the basis of the grievance. However then he references his gripes with commerce in nearly the identical breath.
On Monday, the day tariffs went into impact, Trump posted on Reality Social: “Canada doesn’t permit American Banks to do enterprise in Canada, however their banks flood the American Market. Oh, that appears truthful to me, doesn’t it?”
Canadian officers have repeatedly stated less than one per cent of fentanyl entering the U.S. comes from Canada. However the Trump administration disagrees.
In an look on CNN on the eve of the tariff deadline, Lutnick stated the Mexicans and the Canadians have “performed a pleasant job” on the border, with unlawful crossings “at their lowest degree ever,” however fentanyl deaths had been down lower than 15 per cent and that drop “wasn’t sufficient”. Trudeau, however, says fentanyl seizures from Canada have decreased by 97 per cent between December 2024 and January 2025.

Based on Ross, Washington insiders don’t consider Trudeau.
“There’s a number of opinion in Washington that there’s a good quantity of sleight of hand in (Trudeau’s) bulletins, and I don’t suppose they had been acquired as being a extremely good effort to cope with the issues,” Ross says.
When requested whether or not this was a commerce battle or a drug battle, Ross insists it’s “not so black and white.”
So how can we get out of this?
So, who can we attraction to for assist, then? Lutnick? Greer? Navarro?
Ross says the ultimate say is with Trump and Trump alone.
“On the finish of the day, Trump is his personal commerce minister, and no one ought to lose monitor of that. He takes a number of enter, he likes to have conflicting enter as a result of that makes positive he’ll hear a number of totally different sides of the equation. However on the finish of the day, he feels he is aware of sufficient about commerce and has a powerful sufficient command of the main points that he’s actually his personal commerce minister.”
Whereas Lutnick mulls the potential for a tariff charge renegotiation, Ross says Canada shouldn’t endure beneath any illusions that it’s getting out of tariffs altogether. For now, that is how the world will do enterprise with the U.S., he says.
“Trump has grow to be extra delicate to commerce from all over the place than he was in 2016. Again then, the actual use of tariffs was merely a commerce issue. Now that he’s confirmed that he has the authority to make use of it extra broadly, he’s starting to take action. I feel that’s a part of the rationale why that’s being extra broadly [used] on Canada.”

Trump has signalled that extra tariffs will come in early April, doubtlessly for all U.S. buying and selling companions.
“Canada is taking a look at this in isolation, however it’s probably not occurring in isolation. What’s occurring in reference to Canada is a part of the president’s total emphasis on utilizing greater tariffs for an entire number of finish functions in all types of geographies,” Ross says.
So, ought to we cease navel-gazing and attempting to determine how we are able to appease Trump?
Sure and no, Ross says.
Canada ought to be specializing in rising its defence spending and dealing on methods to “work with Trump, not in opposition to him.”
“I feel the best way to cope with Trump is strive to determine how one can get alongside, not simply to throw recrimination. No person goes to power him to again down. That’s an ill-fated idea if that’s the technique the Canadian authorities makes use of.”
The connection has additionally been by way of the ringer earlier than. In spite of everything, in his memoir, Lighthizer described the CUSMA negotiations as pushing U.S.- Canada relations to their worst level for the reason that Battle of 1812.
So is there getting back from this?
Perhaps. However with a value.
“Tariffs worldwide relative to the U.S. are going to be the brand new lifestyle. Actually so long as Trump is in workplace. There’s little or no level in anyone harbouring the illusions that there’s one thing they’ll do to simply eliminate the tariffs. That’s not real looking,” Ross says.
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