Four favourites have emerged to succeed Pope Francis however the uncertainty round whether or not any candidate has ample assist has meant that it is without doubt one of the most vast open conclaves in historical past.
In line with insiders cardinals Pietro Parolin (Secretary of State), Peter Erdov (Hungary), Jean-Marc Aveline (France) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem) are the frontrunners.
However greater than a dozen others are within the working. Specifically, cardinals Cristóbal López Romero (Morocco) and Robert Prevost (an American Vatican insider) are rising as potential darkish horse alternate options to Aveline.
A lot will rely on whether or not the biggest and strongest faction of the late Pope Francis’ closest supporters – the “Bergoglian” faction (in reference to Francis’ surname) – resolve to fall in behind one candidate or assist the Secretary of State Cardinal Parolin.
However the loss of life of Pope Francis set in movement a centuries-old ritual involving sacred oaths, carried out by the cardinals who will elect his successor.
The method of electing a brand new Pope is shrouded in secrecy, with cardinals forbidden from speaking with the surface world what occurs within the conclave, which takes place inside the frescoed walls of the Sistine Chapel.
The pontiff’s age, alongside along with his well being considerations lately – together with his latest advanced lung an infection – led to questions being requested properly earlier than his loss of life about who would succeed him.
As is all the time the case, within the months and years previous to the loss of life of a pope, a collection of candidates often known as papabile emerge because the frontrunners to change into the brand new chief of the Catholic Church.
What happens now?
The Vatican will convene a papal conclave from Wednesday 7 Could, wherein the Faculty of Cardinals comes collectively to elect the Church’s subsequent head.
The foundations of the conclave, as of twenty-two January 2025, state that of the 252 cardinals, 138 qualify as electors. Solely these beneath the age of 80 could participate within the secret poll within the Sistine Chapel.
4 rounds of voting happen day by day till a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, in a course of that sometimes lasts round 15 to twenty days, in response to the USA Convention of Catholic Bishops.
The idea is that the Holy Spirit will transfer the conclave to seek out the worthy successor to St Peter.
There are already various well-known cardinals whose names have been informally put ahead to fill the position. In 2020, Edward Pentin launched an authoritative e-book on the subject, titled The Subsequent Pope: The Main Cardinal Candidates.
However candidates often known as papabile have risen and fallen even for the reason that publication of that e-book. Favourites getting into the conclave hardly ever emerge as Pope, which has spawned the Italian adage: “Enter the conclave as Pope and go away as a cardinal.”
In truth, of the final six conclaves solely Pope Benedict in 2005 would emerge as Pope having entered because the favorite. So many will likely be trying on the compromise candidates as a potential successor to Francis.
The favourites
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Average
Cardinal Parolin is now thought-about “the primary candidate”, a powerful favorite to be the subsequent Pope however “not a certainty”.
Because the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking member of the electing conclave. Relatively than adhering to “left” or “proper” political leanings, Cardinal Parolin has lengthy been thought-about a wise, average determine throughout the Church.
Most lately, Cardinal Parolin gave an interview with Italian newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo wherein he commented on various geopolitical points.
He mentioned: “Everybody can contribute to peace, however options must not ever be pursued via unilateral impositions that threat trampling on the rights of whole peoples, in any other case there’ll by no means be a simply and lasting peace.”
A properly positioned Vatican insider informed The Impartial: “It’s arduous to know if he [Parolin] actually is the primary candidate as a result of the group of cardinals are very troublesome to learn. They’re a really unusual bunch they usually don’t actually know each other.
“What they see as a very good candidate could also be very totally different to what the media say.
“Parolin is a really protected wager as a result of all of them know him. He was good to everybody and by no means had conflicts with anybody. He has been working within the Vatican for greater than 10 years and is aware of the way it works.”
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Conservative
As a former president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdo is understood for being a religious Marian, that means he devotes his practices to Mary, mom of Jesus.
He’s the main candidate on the conservative wing of the Church, and it’s thought he may very well be the primary challenger to Cardinal Parolin within the early conclave votes.
The 72-year-old Hungarian has famously been a extra conservative voice throughout the Church, having opposed the observe of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving Holy Communion on account of his perception within the insolubility of marriage.
He has additionally in contrast the act of taking in refugees to human trafficking. Erdo was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline
Average liberal
The Archbishop of Marseille is a reputation that has gathered traction and apparently an excessive amount of assist. Cardinal Aveline is alleged to have been the successor that Pope Francis himself needed and is quickly turning into the candidate of those that supported his agenda.
Whereas he was not beforehand described as papabile, he has emerged as a critical contender amongst moderates since Pope Francis’ loss of life.
The 66-year-old French prelate originates from the previous French Algeria colony however spent a lot of his life in Marseille.
The cardinal has been described as a “slightly liberal determine, however one inclined to consensus” by the Faculty of Cardinals Report web site. It makes him a candidate who might doubtlessly attain out to the totally different factions.
Cardinal Aveline has additionally usually been portrayed within the French press as Pope Francis’ favourite prelate, and is alleged to be probably the most “Bergoglian” (in reference to Francis’ surname) of France’s bishops.
His possibilities of being elected rely very a lot on if the allies of Pope Francis fall in behind him early, if not he might miss out to one in all Cardinals Tagle, Zuppi, López Romero, Grech or, a late inclusion within the Papabile, Prevost.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Average conservative
The Patriarch of Jerusalem is simply 60 and far youthful than all the opposite contenders however has gone from a left area choice within the conclave to one of many favourites. It could be by the point the conclave begins that he has change into one of many extra critical contenders.
Primarily, it his position as chief of the Catholics within the Holy Land at a time when Center East occasions in Israel and Gaza are on the forefront of world and Church politics.
Selecting Pizzaballa could be a big geopolitical assertion by the Church, particularly at a time it has been extremely essential of Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities.
Nevertheless, Pizzaballa has not taken sides as others have finished. He was one of many first to sentence Hamas for the 7 October assaults on Israel and provided himself in change for Israeli youngsters taken as hostages by the Palestinian terrorists.
In addition to being a heroic determine with a eager potential as a diplomat he’s additionally a number one Biblical scholar. Pope Francis was recognized to extremely respect him and known as him nearly each day.
He’ll nearly actually get votes within the conclave and if he doesn’t emerge this time due to his comparatively younger age he will likely be a contender once more sooner or later.
Robust contenders
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Average liberal
Because the seventh Filipino to change into a cardinal, Cardinal Tagle could be the primary Asian pope and had been thought-about one of many favourites.
However now there are critical questions over whether or not he has a lot assist amongst fellow cardinals and is definitely, in response to Vatican insiders, a favorite solely within the media protection slightly than actuality.
The 67-year-old at the moment serves because the pro-prefect for the Part of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation, having been made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI. He’s probably the most liberal candidate among the many frontrunners and infrequently dubbed “Francis 2” in his similarities to the late Pope.
Cardinal Tagle has sometimes proven extra left-leaning politics, much like these of Pope Francis, and has criticised the Church’s angle and language in direction of homosexual individuals, single moms, and divorced or remarried Catholics.
He mentioned in 2015: “The tough phrases that have been used previously to discuss with gays and divorced and separated individuals, the unwed moms [and so on], previously they have been fairly extreme. Many individuals who belonged to these teams have been branded and that led to their isolation from the broader society.”
Cardinal Robert Prevost
Average liberal
Whereas many observers suppose that cardinals will revert to a European Pope after the Francis experiment, in the event that they do return to the Americas then the 69-year-old Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishop will likely be a reputation who’s mentioned.
Cardinal Robert Prevost hails from Chicago which is the most important Archdiocese in North America and famously turns the river inexperienced on St Patrick’s day.
He’s believed to be in critical dialogue now as the primary “Bergoglian” candidate (Pope Francis allies) as a substitute of Aveline, Tagle or Zuppi. Vatican insiders describe him because the “darkish horse” candidate who has quietly risen to prominence within the days simply earlier than the conclave.
He was solely promoted to his influential position within the Vatican in 2023 and made a cardinal-bishop in February this yr.
A member of the influential Augustinian order his essential attraction could also be that he’s an skilled in canon regulation. There have been considerations over Francis that the Church moved away from a reliance on canon regulation and the normal establishments. This makes Prevost a compromise candidate for Francis impressed reformers and people who need some conventional order restored.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Liberal
One other main “Bergoglian” candidate Cardinal Zuppi was thought-about to be a favorite of Pope Francis, and has been president of the Episcopal Convention of Italy since Could 2022.
The 69-year-old was made a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since been despatched on various world journeys. He went on a peace mission to Ukraine the place he met president Volodymyr Zelensky, however not Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and he went to the USA to satisfy the then president Joe Biden.
Previous to being a cardinal, Mr Zuppi shared his constructive view of the LGBT+ group when he wrote in an essay in James Martin’s 2018 e-book Constructing a Bridge (Un ponte da Costruire) that it will be “helpful for encouraging dialogue, in addition to reciprocal data and understanding” to undertake a brand new pastoral method in direction of “our LGBT brothers and sisters”.
Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero
Average liberal
Is a late title to emerge within the days earlier than the conclave. The 72-year-old Archbishop of Rabat crosses a number of geographical camps because the prelate in Morocco. As a Spaniard with household from Paraguay he attracts assist from Africa, Europe and South America.
López Romero is described as a Francis ally within the highly effective “Bergoglian” camp and his candidacy will very a lot rely on which prelate the biggest and strongest faction within the conclave ultimately will get behind.
Amongst his progressive stances is emphasising the significance with working with Muslims, one thing that’s born of his expertise of main the Catholic group in a Islamic nation.
He has averted taking positions on points like same-sex marriages or feminine diaconate.
He has strongly expressed his want to not be elected, a stance which can assist his trigger as a result of cardinals are likely to dislike ambition.
López Romero informed Spanish media: “Completely, I don’t need to be elected. One must be loopy to need such an excellent accountability. Being Bishop of Rabat already usually overwhelms me in scope and depth.”
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke
Conservative
Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist, Cardinal Burke, born in Wisconsin, was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
He has publicly clashed with Pope Francis’s extra liberal philosophies, significantly relating to the latter’s willingness to permit divorced and remarried {couples} to obtain the Eucharist. He has additionally known as the Church’s new language round synthetic contraception, civil marriage and homosexual individuals “objectionable”.
He beforehand mentioned that Catholic politicians who assist legalised abortion, equivalent to Mr Biden, shouldn’t obtain the Eucharist.
Cardinal Mario Grech
Liberal
A former conservative, the Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech has emerged as in all probability probably the most progressive choice for the conclave to contemplate.
The 68-year-old is the the one main Church determine to aim to achieve out to LGBT+ communities and rethink doctrine on a posh situation.
Talking to the Synod in October 2014, Grech mentioned that “the doctrine of the religion is able to progressively buying a higher depth” and that addressing individuals in advanced familial relations, or homosexuals or mother and father of homosexuals, “It’s essential to be taught to talk that language which is understood to modern human beings and who acknowledge it as a method of conveying the reality and the charity of the Gospel.”
A favorite of Pope Francis’, Grech was appointed to the influential position of Secretary Common of the Synod of Bishops.
Out of Africa
Cardinal Peter Turkson
Conservative
The Ghanaian prelate, 76, has emerged as one of many main papabile in latest months and could be the primary African pope since Pope Gelasius I within the fifth century.
Cardinal Turkson was a candidate in 2013, however now has extra assist than when Pope Francis was elected within the final conclave.
With Catholicism rising in Africa and declining in European and different Western international locations, there’s a feeling that its centre of gravity is shifting to the growing world.
Cardinal Turkson is politically on the left, and has led for the Church on social justice points, been a critic of neoliberal capitalism and labored for peace.
Nevertheless, theologically he’s very conservative, and was a number one voice towards the usage of condoms regardless of the Aids pandemic in Africa. He additionally defended a extra hardline view on homosexuality.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Conservative
One other African papabile is Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea. The 79-year-old conservative was an ally of the earlier pope, Benedict, and served as his president of the Pontifical Council.
Cardinal Sarah has been a number one participant within the Vatican since 2001, and carries quite a lot of expertise via varied roles within the Church’s establishments. Some thought that his greatest alternative got here in 2013, when Pope Francis emerged as the selection of the cardinals as a substitute.
Cardinal Sarah is a traditionalist and a conservative, who has advised that a few of the reforms introduced in by the Second Vatican Council to modernise the Church within the Sixties should not compulsory. He’s very anti-LGBT+ and has opposed makes an attempt to recognise homosexuality in varied African international locations.
Certainly one of his strengths is that he has a deeper understanding and respect for Islam, as a cardinal from a rustic the place the inhabitants is split between the 2 religions. He has opposed assaults by the West on Muslim international locations equivalent to Iraq. He as soon as famous: “The Islam in my nation is a fraternal, peaceable faith.”
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Conservative
Finishing the African contingent is Archbishop of Kinshasa and head of the Church within the Democratic Republic of Congo. At 65 he is without doubt one of the youthful papabile however is a reputation rising on varied lists as a potential successor to Francis.
Besunga has performed a key position within the unfold of Catholicism in Africa and gained admirers for standing as much as the DRC authorities who ordered for him to be investigated for sedition.
However like the opposite African cardinals he’s a conservative and hit worldwide prominence along with his opposition to blessings of identical intercourse unions.
Additionally within the working
Cardinal Reinhard Marx
Liberal
Might the Catholic church cope with a dose of “Marxism”? The 71-year-old Archbishop of Munich and Freising is a divisive determine who, like his namesake Karl, is a powerful critic of capitalism.
Type a few years he was a powerful ally of Pope Francis from the liberal wing of the church and has been far more progressive on LGBT+ points than most. Nevertheless, he was eliminated Francis’ council of cardinals in Could 2023, falling out of favour having been a key adviser.
Added to that in 2021 he provided his resignation for failing to cope with historic abuse within the Church, though this was rejected on the time.
Cardinal Marx has not been afraid of getting concerned in politics and even criticised Brexit although he insisted the 2016 vote needs to be revered.
He has expertise with the internal workings of the Vatican not least its funds having been on the Council for the Financial system when the Holy See had a deficit.
He has been a outstanding determine at worldwide occasions together with presiding over the funeral of former German soccer captain and supervisor Franz Beckenbauer.
However in some ways he’s the Pope most probably to deliver the Church into the twenty first century however one whose time could have handed.
Cardinal Angelo Scola
Average conservative
The previous Archbishop of Milan is the main title of 4 Italian cardinals who’re seen as potential cease hole candidates if the conclave’s factions can’t come to settlement over the main contenders. He’s believed to have come second to Francis on the final conclave.
At 83 Scola could be the oldest cardinal elected as Pope since Clement X in 1670 and it will be hoped he might present regular however uncontroversial management to offer the church respiration area to resolve which course to soak up the longer term.
Nevertheless, final time cardinals took this protected cease hole choice they elected the 77-year-old John XXIII in 1958 who turned out to be probably the most radical and consequential popes in historical past. He launched the Second Vatican Council to modernise the church and altering Catholicism perpetually.
Cardinal Wim Eijk
Conservative
The Archbishop of Utrecht, 71, has been one of many greatest conservative critics of Pope Francis’ papacy. A medical physician by coaching he’s uncommon among the many cardinals in having a scientific background however has been a fierce opponent of LGBT+ rights.
In 2015 he got here to public consideration for eradicating a parish treasurer from their place as a result of they have been transgender.
He was additionally extremely essential of ecumenical makes an attempt to achieve out to different Christian denominations. In 2018 he condemned Pope Francis for failing to utterly rule out a German proposal to permit Protestants to take the eucharist.
Cardinal Gerhard Müller
Conservative
Cardinal Gerhard Müller is a German prelate who hails from Mainz and is seen as a champion of the traditionalist wing of the Church significantly those that need the Latin Mass restored.
The 77-year-old has change into a fierce critic of Francis after the late Pope sacked him from the pivotal Vatican position as cardinal-prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Religion final yr.
Müller is a powerful opponent of enjoyable guidelines on homosexuality arguing that it’s “a situation of totalitarianism”.
He has although been related to leftwing Liberation Theologians looking for social justice for the poor however solely after he was persuaded by Gustavo Gutiérrez, the daddy of the Liberation Theology motion, that it was an orthodox a part of Catholicism.
He was additionally probably the most outspoken critics of former US president Joe Biden for supporting abortion.
Cardinal Christoph Schönborn
Average
The 80-year-old Archbishop emeritus of Vienna has simply retired from his roles and won’t get a vote within the conclave due to his age.
Nonetheless, as a determine who was revered throughout the totally different factions Cardinal Schönborn could also be a reputation nonetheless in competition.
Most of all he gained respect for being one of many stronger voices in coping with the historic sexual abuse within the Church.
In Could 2010 Schönborn informed the Austrian Catholic information company Kathpress: “The times of cover-up are over. For a protracted whereas the Church’s precept of forgiveness was falsely interpreted and was in favour of these accountable and never the victims.”
He has although been a powerful opponent to Church reform not least in his combat with a dissident priest motion in Austria which was made up of round 10 per cent of its monks and demanded radical modifications. This included permitting monks to marry, in addition to permitting divorced Catholics and non-Catholic Christians to obtain communion.
Regardless of assembly with the group often known as Pfarrer Initiative in June 2012 the Austrian prelate publicly reaffirmed the official place of the Vatican on the problems raised by the dissident group and directed that no priest expressing assist for the “Name to Disobedience” be allowed to carry any administrative put up within the Austrian Catholic Church.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet
Average
The Canadian cardinal from Quebec speaks seven languages fluently. At 80, he’s now too previous to vote within the conclave, though he stays a candidate for the papacy.
Cardinal Ouellet’s hopes, although, have been hit by allegations that emerged in August 2022, when a lawsuit involving an unnamed girl was filed towards him.
Previous to that he had been one of many main voices for change within the Church within the wake of the sexual abuse scandal involving monks.
In 2018, he mentioned: “We are going to want extra participation of girls within the formation of monks, in educating, within the discernment of candidates and their emotional steadiness.”
Cardinal Vincent Nichols
Average
The 79-year-old has been head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales since 2009, and is simply younger sufficient to vote on this conclave as a result of he doesn’t flip 80 till November.
Cardinal Nichols is seen as a gradual, middle-of-the-road candidate, and will doubtlessly emerge as a compromise determine if there’s a standoff between the factions throughout the conclave.
The English cardinal, initially from Crosby in Lancashire, could be the primary British pope since Adrian IV in 1154.
He has rigorously picked his battles on social points within the UK, steering away from interventions within the LGBT+ debates, however has launched a powerful combat towards the assisted dying invoice at the moment being debated in parliament.
That mentioned, he has not been named as one of many papabile, and could be a longshot for the throne of St Peter. Nonetheless, non-papabile have been elected Pope on eight events, together with John XXIII, who initiated the Second Vatican Council, and John Paul II.
Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe
Average
One underrated title is Dominican friar Timothy Radcliffe, 79, who is far cherished by many Catholics for his religious writings. He was a frequent adviser to Pope Francis.
He was solely made a cardinal in October final yr and is a Grasp Emeritus of Order of Preachers.
Like Vincent Nichols he’s extremely unlikely to win any votes within the conclave however can’t be utterly dominated out.
Cardinal Arthur Roche
Average liberal
At 74 Arthur Roche is the youngest of the British cardinals. The previous bishop of Leeds now heads up a Vatican division known as Divine Worship the place he has change into a controversial determine blamed for the suppression of the normal Latin mass.
Roche is a Vatican reformer who was near Francis and is extra prone to be an influencer within the election than a candidate.
Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald
Average
A lot revered by Pope Francis for his work on interfaith dialogue particularly with Muslims, Cardinal Michael Fitzgerald is a extremely skilled diplomat.
Nevertheless, at 87 he won’t have a vote within the conclave and will likely be thought-about to be too previous to succeed Francis.
The stand-in
Cardinal Kevin Farrell
Moderate conservative
Currently, Cardinal Kevin Farrell, an Irish born American who announced Pope Francis’ death to the world, is effectively standing in as temporary administrative head of the church in his role as Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church.
The 77-year-old cannot be completely ruled out as a successor but he is not considered to be a papabile and there are a long list of contenders ahead of him.
Added to that his conservative views have not seen him shy away from diplomatic controversy. In 2018 he infamously prevented the then Irish president Mary McAleese, a supporter of women’s ordination and same-sex marriage, from speaking at a Vatican conference on Women in the Catholic Church.
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