why Assad’s army failed to fight in Syria

By Maya Gebeily, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Ahmed Rasheed and Timour Azhari

DAMASCUS/AMMAN/BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Twenty-three-year-old Syrian navy conscript Farhan al-Khouli was badly paid and demoralized. His military outpost in scrubland close to the rebel-held metropolis of Idlib ought to have had 9 troopers but it surely simply had three, after some had bribed the commanding officers to flee serving, he mentioned.

And, of the 2 conscripts with him, one was regarded by his superiors as mentally unfit and never trusted with a gun, Khouli mentioned.

For years, the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had sat behind the close by frontline, with Syria’s lengthy civil struggle frozen. However on Wednesday, Nov. 27, Khouli’s commanding officer – at one other publish behind the frontlines – referred to as his cell phone to inform him a insurgent convoy was heading his method.

The officer mentioned the unit ought to stand its floor and struggle.

As an alternative, Khouli put his cellphone on airplane mode, turned into civilian garments, dropped his rifle and fled. As he walked alongside the highway again south, different teams of troopers had been abandoning their posts too.

“I regarded again and noticed everybody strolling behind me. Once they noticed one individual flee, everybody began to toss their weapons and run,” he instructed Reuters this week in Damascus, the place he has discovered work at a horse secure.

In rather less than two weeks, the rebels would sweep into the capital Damascus, toppling former president Bashar al-Assad as his military merely melted away. The rout abruptly ended a 13-year battle that had killed a whole bunch of hundreds of individuals.

Reuters spoke to a dozen sources together with two Syrian military deserters, three senior Syrian officers, two Iraqi militia commanders working with the Syrian military, a Syrian safety supply and a supply accustomed to the considering of Lebanese group Hezbollah, one among Assad’s essential navy allies.

The sources, together with intelligence paperwork Reuters present in an deserted navy workplace within the capital, painted an in depth image of how Assad’s once-feared military had been hollowed out by the demoralization of troops, heavy reliance on international allies notably for the command construction, and rising anger throughout the ranks at rampant corruption.

A lot of the sources requested to not be named as a result of they weren’t authorised to speak to media or feared retribution.

For the reason that struggle started in 2011, Assad’s military command had come to rely on allied Iranian and Iran-funded Lebanese and Iraqi forces to offer the most effective preventing models in Syria, all of the senior sources mentioned.

Crucially, a lot of the Syrian navy’s operational command construction was run by Iranian navy advisors and their militia allies, they mentioned.

However lots of the Iranian navy advisers had left this spring after Israeli air strikes on Damascus, and the remaining departed final week, mentioned the Iraqi militia commanders, who labored alongside them.

Hezbollah fighters and commanders had already principally left in October to deal with the escalating struggle in Lebanon with Israel, the supply accustomed to Hezbollah considering mentioned.

The Syrian military’s personal central command and management centre not functioned properly after the Iranian and Hezbollah officers left and the navy lacked a defence technique, notably for Syria’s second metropolis of Aleppo, a Syrian colonel, two Syrian safety sources and a Lebanese safety supply accustomed to the Syrian navy mentioned.

Against this, rebels within the northwest, on paper numerically far weaker than the military, had spent years consolidating underneath a single operations room that coordinated their teams and models in battle, an Worldwide Disaster Group report mentioned after the autumn of Aleppo.

Reuters was unable to contact a present consultant of the armed forces. Syria’s new strongest determine, HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa instructed Reuters on Wednesday he would dissolve Syria’s safety forces. Iran’s mission to the United Nations, the Iraqi militias and Hezbollah didn’t reply to requests for remark.

ALEPPO

As Aleppo got here underneath assault in late November, military models weren’t given a transparent plan however had been instructed to work it out for themselves or to fall again to the strategic metropolis of Homs to attempt to regroup, two Syrian safety sources mentioned.

Aleppo fell with out a main struggle on Nov. 29, simply two days after the offensive started, sending shockwaves by way of the navy, three senior Syrian officers mentioned.

What was left on the bottom was a Syrian military severely missing in cohesion, all of the sources mentioned, describing a number of models that had been undermanned as a result of officers had been accepting bribes to let troopers off obligation, or had instructed troopers to go dwelling and had been accumulating their salaries themselves.

In 2020, the military had 130,000 personnel, in accordance with suppose tank IISS’ Army Steadiness report, describing it as considerably depleted by the lengthy civil struggle and remodeled into an irregularly structured, militia-style organisation targeted on inner safety.

Within the days forward of the regime’s collapse on Sunday, the US had data of broad ranges of desertions and navy forces altering sides, in addition to some parts fleeing to Iraq, a U.S. official, talking on situation of anonymity, mentioned.

Reuters couldn’t set up the general manpower scarcity within the navy or present pressure power.

The Syrian military sources described officers and troops alike as demoralised by pay that was constantly low even after painful navy victories earlier within the struggle and by studies, which Reuters couldn’t confirm, that Assad’s shut household had been rising immensely wealthy.

On Nov. 28, the Normal Command of the Military and Armed Forces issued a telegram, ordering all troops to be on full fight readiness, in accordance with a navy doc discovered by Reuters at an Air Intelligence workplace in Damascus.

In an indication the regime was determined, Syria’s Air Intelligence Directorate, a key company near the Assad household, accused its males of “laxity” at checkpoints all through the nation after one was overrun by rebels within the south on Dec. 1, and warned of punishment “with out leniency” if they didn’t struggle, the doc seen by Reuters reveals.

Regardless of the orders and threats, growing numbers of troopers and officers started to abandon, all of the sources mentioned.

As an alternative of confronting the rebels, and even unarmed protesters, troopers had been seen by residents of Syrian cities, and in lots of movies that started circulating on-line, abandoning their posts, becoming civilian garments and going dwelling.

Reuters journalists coming into Syria on Sunday discovered military uniforms nonetheless strewn throughout Damascus streets.

OFFICERS

The corruption and poor morale went up by way of the ranks.

Many midranking officers had been rising more and more indignant in recent times that the military’s sacrifices and successes in the course of the struggle weren’t mirrored in higher pay, circumstances and sources, two serving, one lately retired and one defected officer mentioned.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed a deal that froze the frontlines after Assad retook all main cities and the primary freeway linking Damascus to Aleppo, additional partitioning a rustic additionally break up by Kurdish-controlled areas.

However Syria’s economic system continued to reel from U.S. sanctions and lowered international support, mentioned Aron Lund, a fellow at Center East-focused suppose tank Century Worldwide. Rampant inflation ensued.

“Issues simply received worse for everybody, aside from the oligarchs and elites round Assad. That appears to have been extremely demoralizing,” Lund mentioned.

Whereas decrees in 2021 roughly doubled navy salaries to maintain up with inflation that topped 100% that 12 months, shopping for energy quickly fell anyway because the Syrian pound crashed in opposition to the greenback.

Col. Makhlouf Makhlouf, who served in an engineering brigade, mentioned that if anyone complained about corruption they had been referred to as in for questioning at a navy courtroom – one thing that had occurred to him greater than as soon as.

“We had been dwelling in a scary society. We had been afraid to say a phrase,” Makhlouf mentioned. He had been stationed in Hama however abandoned earlier than the town fell to the rebels on Dec. 5, he mentioned in an interview in Aleppo on Tuesday.

Anger had been constructing notably over the previous 12 months or so, a serving senior navy intelligence officer mentioned, saying there was “rising resentment in opposition to Assad,” together with amongst core high-ranking supporters from his Alawite minority group.

YEARS OF DECAY

Khouli’s navy expertise illustrated the military’s issues – and helps clarify his lack of loyalty.

He was drafted for the compulsory 18-month service at age 19, after having paid-off an officer to delay his service for a 12 months.

When his service interval expired, he was ordered to stay within the military indefinitely. He abandoned however was later picked up by a patrol, put in jail for 52 days after which despatched to the distant outpost close to Idlib.

He was paid 500,000 Syrian kilos ($40) a month. Military rations had been typically pillaged earlier than arriving. Generally his whole pay went on shopping for extra meals, he mentioned.

Comrades with cash would pay officers $100, which he lacked, to get out of service, Khouli mentioned. Khouli’s brigade was speculated to have 80 troopers, however in actual fact there have been solely 60, he mentioned.

He described unhealthy remedy from officers, together with being assigned heavy guide labour digging earth berms in each highly regarded and really chilly climate and through nights.

Reuters was not capable of confirm independently the main points of his experiences.

One former main described using compelled conscripts as a “deadly mistake”.

A former military logistics serviceman, Zuhair, 28, mentioned in an interview in Damascus on Tuesday he had seen officers steal and promote electrical energy turbines and gas. “All they cared about was utilizing their positions to counterpoint themselves,” he mentioned.

He had fought for Assad for years however he had cousins among the many rebels and once they superior, he cheered, he mentioned. “I do not know easy methods to describe how glad I’m,” he mentioned.

RELIANCE ON ALLIES

To struggle again the sooner opposition rebellion, which started with protests in 2011, Assad relied on allies. Russia despatched jets that bombed insurgent positions, Iran despatched navy advisers and fighters from Hezbollah. Iran-backed militias from Iraq and one other group it fashioned from Afghan Shi’ite fighters additionally got here.

Their preventing ability and well-being contrasted with Syria’s personal troopers. An Iraqi militia commander serving close to Aleppo mentioned he knew of a Syrian platoon meant to encompass 30 troopers that had solely eight current.

The militia typically invited these troopers to eat with them out of pity on the poor situation of their rations, the commander mentioned.

Hezbollah and allied militias regarded the common Syrian forces with little greater than contempt, the Iraqi militia commanders and a supply accustomed to Hezbollah considering mentioned.

They didn’t belief them for essential operations and infrequently wouldn’t struggle alongside them, these sources added.

OCT. 7 HAMAS ATTACKS

Iran’s presence in Syria was curtailed within the months following the assault on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, the Iraqi militia commander based mostly close to Aleppo and an Iraqi navy adviser based mostly in Damascus mentioned.

Israel’s response to Hamas’ incursion included escalating strikes on Iran-linked targets, together with in Syria.

On April 1, a strike killed high commanders from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at a constructing in an Iranian consular compound in Damascus. Israel has not confirmed or denied duty for the strike.

The Iraqi sources each mentioned the variety of Revolutionary Guards commanders current in Syria dropped considerably after that. One mentioned Syria’s navy operations command grew to become ineffective in consequence, a scenario exacerbated by the withdrawal of Hezbollah in October.

Russia performed air strikes on rebels as they superior on Hama and Homs, each side mentioned on the time, however in contrast to in earlier phases of the struggle there have been no efficient floor forces capable of profit.

By Saturday, Dec. 7, Russia was calling for a political transition. The Kremlin and Russia international ministry declined to remark for this story. Russia, the Kremlin mentioned on Tuesday, had “spent numerous effort” to assist Assad in the course of the civil struggle however the scenario had then deteriorated.

In Aleppo, Syrian forces had relied on Hezbollah to offer operational command, an Alawite Syrian military colonel mentioned. With out Iranian advisers or Hezbollah, the military couldn’t maintain onto territory close to the town, the colonel, the Iraqi commander and the Iraqi adviser mentioned.

Iraqi militias despatched extra fighters to Syria final week, however they discovered all of the contact channels to Iranian navy advisors had been reduce, the Iraqi commander mentioned.

On Friday, after rebels had taken the town of Hama, the Iraqi teams had been instructed to go away, he mentioned.

“The battle for Syria was misplaced from day one,” the Iraqi navy adviser added.

(Reporting by Maya Gebeily and Timour Azhari in Damascus, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad, Laila Bassam and Tom Perry in Beirut; Writing by Angus McDowall; Enhancing by Frank Jack Daniel)